FiveThirtyEight House Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 435 House elections in 2022.

Current

no 2022 election
no 2022 election

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

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House Elections 2022

Current 219 213 3*
Consensus Forecast 199 227 9
Interactive Map Above

* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Consensus Map House(a) President(b)
AK-AL Mary Peltola
2022 1st
9.1% 10.1%
Mary Peltola*
Nick Begich
Sarah Palin
AZ-1 David Schweikert
2011 6th
N/A 1.5%
Jevin Hodge
David Schweikert*
AZ-2 Tom O'Halleran
2017 3rd
N/A 8.4%
Tom O'Halleran*
Eli Crane
AZ-6 Ann Kirkpatrick
2019 2nd
N/A 0.3%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Kirsten Engel
Juan Ciscomani
CA-9 Josh Harder
2019 2nd
N/A 12.7%
Josh Harder*
Tom Patti
CA-13 OPEN
N/A 11.4%
Adam Gray
John Duarte
CA-22 David Valadao
2021 1st
N/A 13.1%
Rudy Salas
David Valadao*
CA-27 Mike Garcia
2020 2nd
N/A 12.7%
Christy Smith
Mike Garcia*
CA-45 Michelle Steel
2021 1st
N/A 6.3%
Jay Chen
Michelle Steel*
CA-47 Katie Porter
2019 2nd
N/A 11.9%
Katie Porter*
Scott Baugh
CA-49 Mike Levin
2019 2nd
N/A 11.3%
Mike Levin*
Brian Maryott
CO-8 OPEN
N/A 4.7%
Yadira Caraveo
Barbara Kirkmeyer
CT-5 Jahana Hayes
2019 2nd
N/A 10.9%
Jahana Hayes*
George Logan
FL-7 Stephanie Murphy
2017 3rd
N/A 5.4%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Karen Green
Cory Mills
IA-2 Ashley Hinson
2021 1st
N/A 4.5%
Liz Mathis
Ashley Hinson*
IA-3 Cindy Axne
2019 2nd
N/A 0.4%
Cindy Axne*
Zach Nunn
IL-6 Sean Casten
2019 2nd
N/A 11.1%
Defeated Rep. Marie Newman (current IL-3) in primary
Sean Casten*
Keith Pekau
IL-13 OPEN
N/A 11.3%
Nikki Budzinski
Regan Deering
IL-17 Cheri Bustos
2013 5th
N/A 7.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Eric Sorensen
Esther King
IN-1 Frank Mrvan
2021 1st
N/A 8.5%
Frank Mrvan*
Jennifer-Ruth Green
KS-3 Sharice Davids
2019 2nd
N/A 4.5%
Sharice Davids*
Amanda Adkins
ME-2 Jared Golden
2019 2nd
N/A 6.1%
Jared Golden*
Bruce Poliquin
MI-3 Peter Meijer
2021 1st
N/A 8.6%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2022 election.
Hillary Scholten
John Gibbs
MI-7 Elissa Slotkin
2019 2nd
N/A 0.9%
Elissa Slotkin*
Tom Barrett
MI-8 Dan Kildee
2013 5th
N/A 2.1%
Dan Kildee*
Paul Junge
MI-10 OPEN
N/A 0.7%
Carl Marlinga
John James
MN-2 Angie Craig
2019 2nd
N/A 7.4%
Angie Craig*
Tyler Kistner
NC-13 OPEN
N/A 1.8%
Wiley Nickel
Bo Hines
NE-2 Don Bacon
2017 3rd
N/A 6.4%
Tony Vargas
Don Bacon*
NH-1 Chris Pappas
2019 2nd
N/A 5.7%
Chris Pappas*
Karoline Leavitt
NJ-7 Tom Malinowski
2019 2nd
N/A 4.5%
Tom Malinowski*
Tom Kean Jr
NM-2 Yvette Herrell
2021 1st
N/A 5.7%
Gabriel Vasquez
Yvette Herrell*
NV-1 Dina Titus
2013 5th
N/A 8.7%
Dina Titus*
Mark Robertson
NV-3 Susie Lee
2019 2nd
N/A 6.7%
Susie Lee*
April Becker
NV-4 Steven Horsford
2019 2nd
N/A 8.3%
Steven Horsford*
Sam Peters
NY-1 Lee Zeldin
2015 4th
N/A 0.0%
Retiring to run for Governor
Bridget Fleming
Nicholas LaLota
NY-3 Thomas Suozzi
2017 3rd
N/A 8.5%
Retiring to run for Governor
Robert Zimmerman
George Santos
NY-4 Kathleen Rice
2015 4th
N/A 14.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Laura Gillen
Anthony D'Esposito
NY-17 Sean P. Maloney
2013 5th
N/A 10.1%
Sean Patrick Maloney*
Michael Lawler
NY-18 Pat Ryan
2022 1st
N/A 8.5%
Pat Ryan*
Colin Schmitt
NY-19 OPEN
N/A 4.7%
Josh Riley
Marc Molinaro
NY-22 John Katko
2015 4th
N/A 7.6%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Francis Conole
Brandon Williams
OH-1 Steve Chabot
2011 6th
N/A 8.6%
Greg Landsman
Steve Chabot*
OH-9 Marcy Kaptur
1983 20th
N/A 2.8%
Marcy Kaptur*
JR Majewski
OH-13 Anthony Gonzalez
2019 2nd
N/A 2.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Emilia Sykes
Madison Gesiotto
OR-4 Peter DeFazio
1987 18th
N/A 12.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Val Hoyle
Alek Skarlatos
OR-5 Kurt Schrader
2009 7th
N/A 8.8%
Incumbent defeated in primary for 2022 election.
Jamie McLeod-Skinner
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
OR-6 OPEN
N/A 13.2%
Andrea Salinas
Mike Erickson
PA-7 Susan Wild
2018 3rd
N/A 0.6%
Susan Wild*
Lisa Scheller
PA-8 Matt Cartwright
2013 5th
N/A 2.9%
Matt Cartwright*
Jim Bognet
PA-17 Conor Lamb
2018 3rd
N/A 6.0%
Retiring to run for U.S. Senate
Chris Deluzio
Jeremy Shaffer
RI-2 James Langevin
2001 11th
N/A 12.7%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Seth Magaziner
Allan Fung
TN-5 Jim Cooper
2003 10th
N/A 11.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Heidi Campbell
Andy Ogles
TX-15 OPEN
N/A 2.9%
Michelle Vallejo
Monica De La Cruz
TX-28 Henry Cuellar
2005 9th
N/A 7.2%
Henry Cuellar*
Cassy Garcia
TX-34 Mayra Flores | Vicente Gonzalez
N/A 15.7%
Incumbents of both parties redistricted together
Vicente Gonzalez*
Mayra Flores*
VA-2 Elaine Luria
2019 2nd
N/A 3.1%
Elaine Luria*
Jen Kiggans
VA-7 Abigail Spanberger
2019 2nd
N/A 6.3%
Abigail Spanberger*
Yesli Vega
WA-8 Kim Schrier
2019 2nd
N/A 6.9%
Kim Schrier*
Matt Larkin
WI-3 Ron Kind
1997 13th
N/A 4.8%
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Brad Pfaff
Derrick Van Orden

(a)Source: Cook Political Report, 270toWin research. N/A for new district boundaries. In most cases, the margin is the difference between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the November 3, 2020 general election.
* Uncontested | + No major party opposition | ^ Both nominees from same party | x All-party primary
More details on the above exception types >>

President Margin is the percentage difference between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in 2020:
(b) Source: Daily Kos (when available) or Politico; based on 2022 House district boundaries
(c) Source: Daily Kos; based on House district boundaries used in 2020