The simulator is new to 270toWin in 2008, so it is still a work-in-progress for us.  We like the statistics behind it, but need to point out an important issue.

Most national polls of late show the race to be very tight with Obama ever so slightly up; one poll out today (Reuters/Zogby) shows McCain has pulled ahead by 5 points.   Let’s call it statistically tied for argument’s sake.   The important point is that the change has happened fairly quickly.

The simulator is based on state-level polls.  Ultimately, the election will be decided at the state level, so this is the right approach.  However, at this point, most states are only being polled once or twice a month.   Until this polling gets more frequent, be aware that the simulator results will lag behind what the national polls are saying.

We hope that as Election Day nears, everything will sync up nicely and the tool will be quite useful, but until then, use caution in reading too much into the simulator outcomes.

After losing about 98% of the simulations in recent weeks, John McCain is starting to show some signs of life as recent state-level polls have generally moved closer.   This appears to be consistent with some of the national polling that has shown the race tightening in recent weeks.   While national polls are ultimately irrelevant, they do serve as somewhat of a leading indicator since most of the state-level polls are only being taken once or twice a month at this point.  There should be increased frequency in these after the conventions, which should better align the state and national metrics.

Found this site today.   Extremely well-written posts with excellent analysis.

The latest polls, from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen keep Obama ahead overall, but the bounce he enjoyed after securing the nomination is wearing off a bit.    Visit the individual state pages to see some of the more recent polls in each state, along with a voting history of that state.

In terms of the recent polls:

• Pennsylvania:   A double digit lead for Obama has decreased to 5 points in the latest Rasmussen poll
• Minnesota:        Rasmussen poll shows a 10 point lead for Obama, fairly consistent with other recent polling, while the Quinnipiac poll showed Obama with only a 2 point lead.
• Wisconsin:  Obama has an 11 point lead according to Quinnipiac.   This state, which has been among the closest in the last two elections is clearly favoring Obama in all recent polling and we may move it out of swing status (on the interactive map) if this trend continues.
• Florida:  Obama has caught McCain in the latest Rasmussen poll, actually leading by one point.
• Michigan:   Obama is up by 4 in the latest Quinnipiac poll.   This is consistent with the average of other recent polls.
• Colorado:   A poll out earlier this week had Obama up by 6, while the latest Quinnipiac poll actually has McCain up by 2.

Obviously, all these polls were taken before Obama’s recent trip to the Middle East and Europe.   It will be interesting to see how voters respond to this trip in polling over the next couple of weeks.

Early polling is showing that the race in Virginia, a state that hasn’t voted Democratic since 1964, may be very close this year.  We were just playing around with a scenario where that state could be decisive.

In this scenario, Obama maintains his lead and wins the block of states in the economically struggling upper Midwest, including IA and WI which have been very close in recent elections.  He also wins the southwestern states of NV, CO and NM based on the evolving demographics in those states.    However, in this scenario, Obama is not able to overcome the difficulties he had in the primaries with the working-class white voters and loses both Ohio and Pennsylvania.

This leaves McCain with 268 electoral votes and Obama with 257, and Virginia becomes decisive.

Thoughts?

Recent polls in NH and FL have shown a closer race than polls out a few weeks ago.   A couple polls in NH show only a 2 or 3 point lead for Obama, down from about 10 points.  In Florida, a recent poll shows McCain only up by two points on Obama.   Perhaps the biggest shift is in Ohio, where Obama’s lead of as much as 6 points last month has now turned into a 6 point lead for McCain in the latest Rasmussen poll.   In Michigan, two polls out last week show markedly different results — Rasmussen has Obama up by 8, while a Detroit News poll indicates the race is much closer, with only 2 points separating the candidates.

Some people have written and asked why we don’t update the swing states on our interactive map for changes in polls.   Our answer has been that the interactive map is based on a combination of both history and polls; the latest poll results show that it is far too soon to move states like MI, OH, FL and NH out of swing status.  Visit the polling map to see how the electoral college looks purely based on current polling.

A number of polls have come out this week and Senator Obama has opened up a 10 point lead in Iowa and an 8 point lead in Michigan.  Both those polls came from Rasmussen, which also came out with a South Dakota poll that shows that race tightening — Senator McCain leads 44-40.      These polls continue a trend of strengthening spreads for Obama in the upper midwest — the last Wisconsin and Minnesota polls (states that were very close in 2004) — has Obama ahead by double digits.

Putting all the recent polls together, Obama is ahead, outside the margin of error, in states with 259 electoral votes, compared with 151 for McCain.    As always, we caution that the campaign has just begun…. running mates haven’t been picked and the candidates haven’t even formally been nominated…. so take the numbers for what they are… an indication of where things stand today, and nothing more.

We’ve tweaked our methodology for the simulator a bit, using an average in some states.  Previously, we were basically picking one recent poll for a state and using that.    However, in many states we’re seeing wildly different results over a short period of time.   Since even a slight difference in percentages makes a huge difference in the probability of winning a state, using one poll (where others differ significantly in a short calendar period) was implying a level of precision that doesn’t really exist.

Given the current polls, we don’t think it will change the current bottom line results (Obama wins most of the simulations), but it should introduce a wider spread in outcomes.

And, as a reminder, the simulator isn’t predicting the future (i.e., the election).  It merely says:  If the election were today, given the current polls (and assuming they are accurate), what would the outcome likely be.   However, the election isn’t today, and the general campaign has only just started.

Many of you have seen our new election simulator.   This tool takes current polling in each state, turns the results into probabilities, and then runs simulated elections based on those probabilities.

Until the middle of last week, the simulator was behaving quite nicely (especially for a site like ours that will get more traffic if the race is competitive) — it was about 50-50 for Obama and McCain.   However, toward the end of the week, Quinnipiac released polls that gave Obama a substantial lead in three pivotal swing states (PA, FL, OH) and other swing state polling moved toward Obama as well, including significant leads in IA and WI.

As a result of the above, if the election were held today (and if the polls are accurate…always a big if)…Obama would win. This can also be seen in the national polls that have come out over the weekend, with Obama ahead from 5 to as much as 15 points.  (While the popular vote ultimately doesn’t matter, if a candidate wins by that much on Election Day, he isn’t going to lose the Electoral College vote).

The dilemma, of course, is that the election is not today and the current polling likely reflects a temporary post-nomination bump. We discuss that in another post.

So, it is important to note that the simulator doesn’t say Obama will win the election, it merely reflects what would likely happen based on current polls — if the election was today.    Since Obama is currently polling well ahead in important swing states and there aren’t that many states currently polling inside 5%, this leads to a tighter range of outcomes and the near 100% victory for Obama in the simulations.

Polls that have been conducted since Obama became the presumptive nominee show a good-sized bump for the candidate.   This has occurred across-the-board — red states have become a bit less red and some important swing states have gone blue.   As a result of 3 new Quinnipiac polls today, Obama has a lead outside the margin of error in states representing 269 electoral votes, his highest total to date.

We don’t know if Obama will end up with far more or far fewer electoral votes, but it is likely that the road between now and November will show lots of peaks and valleys for both candidates.    Obama’s number will likely grow some more as more in the next week to ten days as post-nomination polls are taken in other states.  After that, polling may begin to show some reversion as the bump wears off.