Recent polls in NH and FL have shown a closer race than polls out a few weeks ago.   A couple polls in NH show only a 2 or 3 point lead for Obama, down from about 10 points.  In Florida, a recent poll shows McCain only up by two points on Obama.   Perhaps the biggest shift is in Ohio, where Obama’s lead of as much as 6 points last month has now turned into a 6 point lead for McCain in the latest Rasmussen poll.   In Michigan, two polls out last week show markedly different results — Rasmussen has Obama up by 8, while a Detroit News poll indicates the race is much closer, with only 2 points separating the candidates.

Some people have written and asked why we don’t update the swing states on our interactive map for changes in polls.   Our answer has been that the interactive map is based on a combination of both history and polls; the latest poll results show that it is far too soon to move states like MI, OH, FL and NH out of swing status.  Visit the polling map to see how the electoral college looks purely based on current polling.

A number of polls have come out this week and Senator Obama has opened up a 10 point lead in Iowa and an 8 point lead in Michigan.  Both those polls came from Rasmussen, which also came out with a South Dakota poll that shows that race tightening — Senator McCain leads 44-40.      These polls continue a trend of strengthening spreads for Obama in the upper midwest — the last Wisconsin and Minnesota polls (states that were very close in 2004) — has Obama ahead by double digits.

Putting all the recent polls together, Obama is ahead, outside the margin of error, in states with 259 electoral votes, compared with 151 for McCain.    As always, we caution that the campaign has just begun…. running mates haven’t been picked and the candidates haven’t even formally been nominated…. so take the numbers for what they are… an indication of where things stand today, and nothing more.

We’ve tweaked our methodology for the simulator a bit, using an average in some states.  Previously, we were basically picking one recent poll for a state and using that.    However, in many states we’re seeing wildly different results over a short period of time.   Since even a slight difference in percentages makes a huge difference in the probability of winning a state, using one poll (where others differ significantly in a short calendar period) was implying a level of precision that doesn’t really exist.

Given the current polls, we don’t think it will change the current bottom line results (Obama wins most of the simulations), but it should introduce a wider spread in outcomes.

And, as a reminder, the simulator isn’t predicting the future (i.e., the election).  It merely says:  If the election were today, given the current polls (and assuming they are accurate), what would the outcome likely be.   However, the election isn’t today, and the general campaign has only just started.

Many of you have seen our new election simulator.   This tool takes current polling in each state, turns the results into probabilities, and then runs simulated elections based on those probabilities.

Until the middle of last week, the simulator was behaving quite nicely (especially for a site like ours that will get more traffic if the race is competitive) — it was about 50-50 for Obama and McCain.   However, toward the end of the week, Quinnipiac released polls that gave Obama a substantial lead in three pivotal swing states (PA, FL, OH) and other swing state polling moved toward Obama as well, including significant leads in IA and WI.

As a result of the above, if the election were held today (and if the polls are accurate…always a big if)…Obama would win. This can also be seen in the national polls that have come out over the weekend, with Obama ahead from 5 to as much as 15 points.  (While the popular vote ultimately doesn’t matter, if a candidate wins by that much on Election Day, he isn’t going to lose the Electoral College vote).

The dilemma, of course, is that the election is not today and the current polling likely reflects a temporary post-nomination bump. We discuss that in another post.

So, it is important to note that the simulator doesn’t say Obama will win the election, it merely reflects what would likely happen based on current polls — if the election was today.    Since Obama is currently polling well ahead in important swing states and there aren’t that many states currently polling inside 5%, this leads to a tighter range of outcomes and the near 100% victory for Obama in the simulations.

Polls that have been conducted since Obama became the presumptive nominee show a good-sized bump for the candidate.   This has occurred across-the-board — red states have become a bit less red and some important swing states have gone blue.   As a result of 3 new Quinnipiac polls today, Obama has a lead outside the margin of error in states representing 269 electoral votes, his highest total to date.

We don’t know if Obama will end up with far more or far fewer electoral votes, but it is likely that the road between now and November will show lots of peaks and valleys for both candidates.    Obama’s number will likely grow some more as more in the next week to ten days as post-nomination polls are taken in other states.  After that, polling may begin to show some reversion as the bump wears off.

You now have the ability to split the electoral votes of Maine & Nebraska on the 270toWin interactive map.

Background:  Although it is possible for an Elector to cast his or her vote for someone other than for the popular vote winner in their state, this is quite rare in modern times. As a result, Electoral Votes for a state tend to be “all or nothing”.

Maine and Nebraska have taken a slightly different approach in recent years. These states allocate two Electoral Votes to the popular vote winner, and then one each to the popular vote winner in each Congressional district (2 in Maine, 3 in Nebraska) in their state. This creates multiple popular vote contests in these states, which could lead to a split Electoral Vote.

Mathematically, the popular vote winner of a state must win at least one of the districts. That is why you cannot assign all the district Electoral Votes to the losing party in the state. Note that since these rules were adapted, neither state has ever split their Electoral Votes. in 2008, Maine looks safely Democratic, Nebraska solidly Republican, but it isn’t out of the question that Obama could pick off the 2nd Congressional District (Omaha and its suburbs), gaining a Democratic Electoral Vote in Nebraska for the first time since 1964.

We’ve added new polls today in 14 states. Interestingly, this latest batch is quite strong for Clinton relative to Obama in a number of states, including several of the key swing states. We’re not poll pundits, so will leave the analysis for others, but it is a bit of a paradox that she is polling well as the race winds down with Obama looking like the nominee.

The Obama vs. McCain race seems much more wide open, with 178 electoral votes in states where the polling margin is 5% or less (vs. 112 in Clinton vs. McCain). Since we’re running an electoral college website, we kind of like the idea of a race with an electoral map that gets shaken up a bit — there were only 3 states that differed in 2004 vs. 2000.

Another close election may be coming up in November. It is not difficult to create a realistic scenario where the electoral map on election night is 269-269. What then?

As our site URL says, it takes “270 to Win”. If neither candidate gets a majority of the Electoral Votes, the election for President is decided in the House of Representatives, with each state delegation having one vote. Senators would elect the Vice-President.

It is important to note that an apparent tie on election night does not mean that there is actually a tie. The actual Electors meet on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December (December 15, 2008) to cast their votes. Only about half the states have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner. It is possible that an Elector could cast his or her vote for another person. As long as that vote wasn’t for the other major candidate in the race, this wouldn’t be an issue — neither candidate would have 270. However, imagine a scenario where a single Elector in a single state switched their vote to the other party — the vote would be 270 -268. While very unlikely, it has happened before (most recently in 1968, although the election that year wasn’t close). If you thought the 2000 election was controversial, this outcome just might bring the Electoral College system to its knees.

More than likely, the election would remain undecided after the Electors voted. The new Congress meets in joint session on January 6, 2009 to count the electoral votes (this count happens whether the election is close or not). If neither candidate has reached 270 Electoral Votes, then the House and Senate take over and elect the President and Vice-President, respectively.

UPDATE 6/22:   Based on some feedback, we may not have made this point clearly enough:  It is the new Congress, that is inaugurated the first week of January, 2009, that will have the responsibility of breaking any ties.

270toWin has launched an interactive map to help you follow the 2008 Senate races. There are currently 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans in the Senate, with 2 Independents caucusing with the Democrats, giving that party majority control.  In 2008, 35 seats are up for election, in 33 states.   Of these 35 seats, 23 are currently held by Republicans, 12 by Democrats.

Current polling by the Cook Political Report indicates that it is likely the Democrats will retain control of the Senate, and may even gain a few seats.   At this point, however, it doesn’t look like they will reach the 60 seats needed for a supermajority.

60 votes are needed in the Senate to end debate or filibuster on a bill via a cloture vote.   (From senate.gov:  Cloture is the only procedure by which the Senate can vote to place a time limit on consideration of a bill or other matter, and thereby overcome a filibuster).    Therefore, a party controlling 60 seats (and who can get a party-line cloture vote) has dominant control of the legislative agenda, as it can bring any issue to the full Senate for a vote.

Based on recent polls, and the increased likelihood of an Obama vs. McCain race, we’ve moved North Carolina from Republican to Swing and Arkansas from Swing to Republican.   The latter decision was fairly easy — the only way Arkansas is really in play is if Sen. Clinton is the nominee.  

North Carolina, Virginia and even South Carolina have been fairly competitive in most polls between Obama and McCain.  Since 1968, those states have voted exclusively Republican (except for 1976 when both Carolinas went for Carter).  It will add an interesting dynamic to the 2008 race if those states are once again competitive as the election draws near.