Who Will Control the Senate - and when will we know?
Senate control seems to be the #1 story this election season. As it turns out, the results from Election Day itself may not answer the question. A number of things may be unsettled for weeks and the 100th Senator may not be known until after the new Congress is sworn in.
If Republicans control 51 seats or Democrats control 50 seats after Election Day, we'll know the majority party at that time regardless of whether one or more of the events below come to pass.
If we don't know the majority party, a runoff in Louisiana means we may not know who controls the Senate until December 6. An independent's victory in Kansas and/or South Dakota means we may not know until the new Senate is sworn in (on or about January 3). A runoff in Georgia doesn't take place until January 6, creating the prospect of the party in control on January 3 losing it shortly thereafter. If more than one of these events occurs, it complicates things even further.
- Louisiana: Unlike most states, Louisiana doesn't hold a nominating primary in advance of the general election, meaning that mulitple candidates from each party (and 3rd parties) can appear on the November 4 ballot. Most of the votes in this year's 'Jungle Primary', as the election is also called, are expected to go to incumbent Mary Landrieu (D) and two Republicans, Bill Cassidy and Rob Maness. However, no candidate is likely to reach 50% of the vote. This will trigger a runoff election on December 6 between the top two vote getters.
- Georgia: The 50% or top-two runoff rule is in place here as well. However, with both major parties fielding a single nominee, a runoff is less likely, although still possible in a close race where the Libertarian candidate gets a few percent of the vote . If a runoff is needed it will not take place until January 6, 2015. This date is after the new Congress is sworn in, and could mean one party controls the Senate for only a few days at the outset of the 114th Congress.
- Kansas: Democrat Chad Taylor's withdrawal from the race opened up the possibility that independent Greg Orman could win the election. Orman has thus far not definitively indicated which party he would caucus with, although he has said that if one party is clearly in the majority he will seek to caucus with that party. That in mind, if Orman wins and the Senate otherwise ends up 50-49 Republican, his would be the deciding vote on party control.
- South Dakota: A three-way race, including former Senator Larry Pressler running as an independent has become competitive in recent polling. While Pressler served as a Republican, he endorsed President Obama in 2008 and 2012. It is unclear which party he would caucus with should he win.
- Alaska: The sprawling, partly remote nature of ths state makes it difficult to quickly count all the votes and thus determine a winner in close races. The last two Senate races in the state were not called by the Associated Press until the middle of November: The 17th in 2010 and the 18th in 2008.
One additional complication not considered above: Although not up for re-election this year, Maine's independent Senator Angus King could also play a role in Senate control if he were to decide to caucus with the Republicans instead of the Democrats in 2015. While unlikely, it is not an impossible scenario. In fact, he has endorsed his colleague, Republican Susan Collins for re-election, a race she is expected to win easily.
