2016 Election Competitive States

As of November 5th

These are the states where the 2016 election is most like to be won or lost, based on a combination of polling and professional forecasts. For the map based just on polling, including a break out of states leaning toward one nominee, see the electoral map based on polls.  To see a map based just on pro forecasts, see the consensus pundit map. For our view, see the 270toWin State of the Race map.

As the election draws near, these various maps should converge on roughly the same prediction.

 

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election as a Trump vs. Clinton forecast. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2028 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2028 electoral votes will display)
no 2016 election
no 2016 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

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Headlines

Overview and Live Results: St. Louis Mayoral Election

April 8, 2025

Mayor Tishaura Jones is fighting an uphill battle to win a second term in this rematch from the 2021 election

House Updates: James Running for MI Gov.; Abbott Calls TX Special Election

April 8, 2025

The Michigan Republican looks to succeed Whitmer, while the special election will (eventually) fill a House vacancy

House Updates: Patronis, Fine Seated After Wins; Pappas to Seek NH Senate Seat

April 4, 2025

The narrow GOP advantage expands to 220-213 as the newest members are quickly sworn in after their special election victories

Overview and Live Results: Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

April 1, 2025

One of the more consequential races of 2025 will decide the ideological balance of the court

Overview and Live Results: Florida Congressional Special Elections

April 1, 2025

While winning might be a bridge too far for Dems in these deep red districts, a close outcome will