FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast

This isn’t a popularity contest™

Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8." 

The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases:  Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).

The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.

The map at this URL was originally created for the 2016 election. For an interactive map, choose one of the following:
  • Click here to go to the 2016 historical interactive map
  • Click here to create a 2024 map at the home page
  • Click here to edit the map below (2024 electoral votes will display)
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Headlines

Electoral College Meets Tuesday

December 16, 2024

The next step in the presidential process will affirm Donald Trump received the necessary 270 electoral votes to be elected

Final 2024 Election Maps

December 4, 2024

Interactive Maps for the 2024 Election Results for President, Senate, House, and Governor

House Election Update: One District Remains Uncalled

November 28, 2024

Republicans will hold one of the narrowest majorities in history as the new Congress gets underway in January

Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled

November 16, 2024

The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14

November 14, 2024

Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin