FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-plus forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls, the economy and historical data tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
You are viewing:
VT |
|
NH |
|
MA |
|
RI |
|
CT |
|
NJ |
|
DE |
|
MD |
|
DC |
Map :
Headlines
Early Voting Begins in Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
The ideological balance of power will be decided in this election for a ten-year term to succeed the retiring Justice Ann Walsh Bradley
Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva Dies at Age 77
The 12 term Democrat had been receiving cancer treatment
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire Not Running in 2026
She is the third Democrat to retire this cycle, all in states that represent Republican pickup opportunities
Overview and Live Results: March 11 State House Special Elections
State House vacancies in Iowa and Minnesota will be filled Tuesday. There is also a special State Senate primary in Alabama.
Inside Elections 2026 House Ratings
The forecaster's initial projection shows another tightly contested battle for control in 2026
Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. Share or Embed your Map: