Electoral College Projections as of October 13th

With just under four weeks to go until the 2016 presidential election, here's the state of the race from the viewpoint of 14 forecasters. You can find all the associated maps, as well as a few others, on our 2016 Presidential Election Forecasts page.

Since our last update on October 5th, Hillary Clinton's average total electoral votes climbed from 280 to 300, most of which derived from forecasters moving states out of toss-up. Donald Trump's average only fell slightly, from 193 to 189. 

Note that the statistical projections (shaded in gray) may change several times a day as new input data (e.g., polls released that day) are processed by the models. This will lead to more variability vs. the other forecasters.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds Not Seeking Reelection in 2026

In her announcement video, Reynolds cited a desire to spend more time with her family

Overview and Live Results: St. Louis Mayoral Election

Mayor Tishaura Jones is fighting an uphill battle to win a second term in this rematch from the 2021 election

House Updates: James Running for MI Gov.; Abbott Calls TX Special Election

The Michigan Republican looks to succeed Whitmer, while the special election will (eventually) fill a House vacancy

House Updates: Patronis, Fine Seated After Wins; Pappas to Seek NH Senate Seat

The narrow GOP advantage expands to 220-213 as the newest members are quickly sworn in after their special election victories

Overview and Live Results: Wisconsin Supreme Court Election

One of the more consequential races of 2025 will decide the ideological balance of the court