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2008 Election Simulator (Obama vs. McCain)

As you land on this page, a simulated election will be conducted, with all 50 states and DC colored red or blue in about 15 seconds. Each time you click the Run Again button, another simulated election will take place. You can see the results of the last 1,000 simulations by clicking the View Stats button.

Methodology
We take current state-by-state polls and turn the results into probabilities. Each simulation picks a winner in each individual state, based on the probabilities for that state. For example, if McCain has a 55% chance of winning Nevada, he will, in the long run, win Nevada in 55% of the simulations conducted. States that are not polling close (e.g., Utah or Illinois) will always yield the same result. As a result, a closer election, with more swing states, will yield a wider range of simulation results than an election with fewer states that are up for grabs. The simulator does not consider the possibility of split electoral votes in Maine or Nebraska.

8/20: Important Simulator Update»

Caution
State-level polling data this far in advance of November is of limited predictive value. Therefore, these simulations may bear no resemblance to how the election will actually play out.
Amaze your Friends with Trivial Knowledge!
Did you know that there are over two quadrillion (15 zeroes) ways that the U.S. map can be colored red and blue?