Each of the 50 states receives electoral votes equal to its total congressional (Senators + Representatives) delegation. Since all states have two Senators and a minimum of one congressional district, the fewest number of electoral votes a state can have is three. Although not a state, the District of Columbia (DC) receives 3a electoral votes. Therefore, the total electoral votes is 538, reflecting 100 Senators + 435 Representatives + 3 for DC.
The number of congressional districts in each state is determined by its decennial Census population. The last Census was in 2010, the next will be in 2020. Once each state's Census population is finalized, a calculation (called The Method of Equal Proportions) generates the new number of districts for each state. Since the number of districts is fixed by law at 435, a state gains or loses representation (and electoral votesb) based on its population change relative to the total change in population for the countryc.
While the next Census will be based on the population as of April 1, 2020, the numbers will not be official in time to be used for that year's presidential election. Therefore, any changes to electoral votes will be effective with the 2024 election.
The Census Bureau puts out population estimates each year. Creating a model to take those estimates out to 2020 allows for a prediction of states that will gain and lose electoral votes next time they are reapportioned. Obviously, the closer we get to 2020, the more accurate these predictions are likely to be.
The following projection was made in late 2016 by Election Data Services, a political consulting firm that specializes in analysis of census and political data.
The two big winners, Florida and Texas, were won by Trump in 2016. At the same time, three rust belt electoral votes in states Trump won (one each in Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania) will be reallocated to other states. Therefore, if the projected 2024 distribution had been in place for 2016, Trump would have had three additional electoral votes.
| State | Electoral Votes | If Used in 2016 | 270toWin Notes on 2024 Estimates | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Now | 2024 | ||||
| Alabama | 9 | 8 | -1 | Last lost an EV after 1970 Census | |
| Arizona | 11 | 12 | +1 | Doubled EV in last 50 years (6 in 1972) | |
| Colorado | 9 | 10 | +1 | Growing: At 6 EV as recently as 1968 | |
| Florida | 29 | 31 | +2 | Gained at least 1 EV every Census since 1900* | |
| Illinois | 20 | 18 | -2 | 5th straight Census losing at least 1 EV | |
| Michigan | 16 | 15 | -1 | 5th straight Census losing at least 1 EV | |
| Minnesota | 10 | 9 | -1 | First change in EV since 1960 Census | |
| New York | 29 | 28 | -1 | Prior to this, lost at least 2 EV since 1950 Census | |
| North Carolina | 15 | 16 | +1 | Passes MI, ties GA for 8th most EV in country | |
| Ohio | 18 | 17 | -1 | 6th straight Census losing at least 1 EV | |
| Oregon | 7 | 8 | +1 | Last gained an EV after 1980 Census | |
| Pennsylvania | 20 | 19 | -1 | 7th straight Census losing at least 1 EV | |
| Rhode Island | 4 | 3 | -1 | First time this original colony has minimum EV | |
| Texas | 38 | 42 | +4 | Big 'winner'; also gained 4 in 2010 | |
| West Virginia | 5 | 4 | -1 | Has lost 50% of EV since JFK election (1960) | |
| TOTAL | -3 | +3 | |||
| * There was no reapportionment after the 1920 Census | |||||