Updated Electoral Map Based on Polls

Here's the latest electoral map based on state-level polling. States not yet polled are in gray. Toss-up states (tan) are those where the average difference between Clinton & Trump is five points or less. The lighter blue/red reflect spreads of five to ten points, and the darkest blue/red greater than ten points.

There have been quite a few state polls this week, which have led to some shifts in the map. Most notably, Colorado and Virginia have moved from toss-up to leaning Clinton. On the other hand, national polls have been showing a tightening race. Since state polling isn't as frequent at this point in the campaign, this map may not fully capture the current state of the race.

This lack of frequency and/or recency can also yield some unlikely results. States like Kansas and Mississippi are not likely to stay where they are now as more data comes in.

The map below takes the polling map and applies the 2012 outcomes for unpolled states. Click it for an interactive version. 

 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Overview and Live Results: Rhode Island State Senate Special Primary

The seat opened with the April death of long time state Sen. Dominick Ruggerio

Tennessee Republican Rep. Mark Green to Resign from Congress July 20

He previously announced his intention to take a job in the private sector

Reps. Evans and Johnson to Leave House; Now 16 Retirements in 2026 Cycle

Both represent safe seats for the incumbent party; Johnson is running for South Dakota governor

Live Results: New York City Ranked Choice Tabulation

Zohran Mamdani is expected to move one step closer to being certified as the Democratic nominee for mayor

Sen. Thom Tillis Will Not Seek Reelection Next Year

He had come under attack from Trump after voting "no" to advance the president's signature legislation