LIVE ELECTION RESULTS
2018 Senate Elections: Polling Averages and Forecast Ratings
By 270toWin Staff
October 28, 2018
Just a little over a week before the midterms, here's an overview of where each of this year's 35 Senate elections stands. For each race, we display the polling average (choose a state), a consensus forecaster rating and the FiveThirtyEight probability from their Classic model. All information is as of late morning on Sunday, October 28th.
A few notes:
- All the 'safe' seats seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability.
- New Mexico polling percentages impacted by Libertarian Gary Johnson, who polled at 22% in a recent survey
- The last couple polls in 'likely Democratic' Michigan have been somewhat closer than the polling average and ratings would indicate. May just be a blip, but will be interesting to see if that trend persists in any subsequent polling
- The other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) seem more 'safe' than not for the Democratic incumbents as Election Day nears.
- The Cook Political Report reclassified New Jersey as a 'toss-up' this past week. The other qualitative forecasters have it as likely Democratic' and FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Menendez a 91% chance of being re-elected.
- The biggest discrepancy between polling and the 'pros' seems to be in North Dakota where Sen. Heidi Heitkamp is trailing by double-digits in recent polls.
- Indiana is tied based on the five polls out this month. However, the most recent two polls, including one out today, give Republican challenger Mike Braun a small lead.
Headlines
Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled
The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14
Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin
Republicans Retain House Majority
The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10
One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8
Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.