LIVE ELECTION RESULTS
Two Days Out: Updated Senate Rankings and Poll Averages
By 270toWin Staff
November 4, 2018
There hasn't been all that much movement in the Senate races since we first published this chart last Sunday. Small changes in the polling averages (choose a state) and FiveThirtyEight Classic Model probabilities; no changes at all in the consensus forecaster rating.
A few notes:
- All the 'safe' seats still seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability.
- The momentum of Michigan GOP nominee John James seems to have stalled. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has led by 9% or more in the three most recent polls. James did have one of the more amusing tweets this past week, however.
- As a result, Michigan joins the other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) as looking pretty safe for the incumbents. All are now in that FiveThirtyEight category, with a Democratic probability above 95%.
- The biggest discrepancy between FiveThirtyEight and the consensus seems to be in Montana, where FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Jon Tester an 87.6% chance of being re-elected.
- In Nevada, Jacky Rosen has led in the three most recent polls, putting her just slightly ahead of Sen Dean Heller in the average.
Headlines
Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled
The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14
Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin
Republicans Retain House Majority
The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10
One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8
Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.