Two Days Out: Updated Senate Rankings and Poll Averages
By 270toWin Staff
November 4, 2018
There hasn't been all that much movement in the Senate races since we first published this chart last Sunday. Small changes in the polling averages (choose a state) and FiveThirtyEight Classic Model probabilities; no changes at all in the consensus forecaster rating.
A few notes:
- All the 'safe' seats still seem supported by the polling averages and the FiveThirtyEight probability.
- The momentum of Michigan GOP nominee John James seems to have stalled. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has led by 9% or more in the three most recent polls. James did have one of the more amusing tweets this past week, however.
- As a result, Michigan joins the other 'likely Democratic' seats with regularly scheduled elections this year (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) as looking pretty safe for the incumbents. All are now in that FiveThirtyEight category, with a Democratic probability above 95%.
- The biggest discrepancy between FiveThirtyEight and the consensus seems to be in Montana, where FiveThirtyEight gives Sen. Jon Tester an 87.6% chance of being re-elected.
- In Nevada, Jacky Rosen has led in the three most recent polls, putting her just slightly ahead of Sen Dean Heller in the average.
Headlines
Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva Dies at Age 77
The 12 term Democrat had been receiving cancer treatment
Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire Not Running in 2026
She is the third Democrat to retire this cycle, all in states that represent Republican pickup opportunities
Overview and Live Results: March 11 State House Special Elections
State House vacancies in Iowa and Minnesota will be filled Tuesday. There is also a special State Senate primary in Alabama.
Inside Elections 2026 House Ratings
The forecaster's initial projection shows another tightly contested battle for control in 2026
Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas Dies at 70
In November, the former mayor of Houston won the seat long-held by fellow Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee