Simulator Enhancements: Bellwether and Tipping Point Frequencies Added
By 270toWin Staff
August 1, 2020
We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator. This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).
Bellwether: Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.
Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.
The top 5 states in each category for July 31 are below.
Headlines
Rep. Sylvester Turner of Texas Dies at 70
In November, the former mayor of Houston won the seat long-held by fellow Democrat Sheila Jackson Lee
Live Results: St. Louis Mayoral Primary; Oklahoma Special Election
Mayor Tishaura Jones is seeking a second term in the first regularly scheduled election of 2025
Rep. Byron Donalds Running for Florida Governor in 2026
He'll look to succeed fellow Republican Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to run due to term limit laws
Overview and Live Results: February 25 Legislative Special Elections
Voters in Connecticut and Maine will fill vacancies, while the California contests may require a top-two election in April
Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell to Retire at End of Term
Currently second in seniority to Chuck Grassley, the 83 year old Republican will not seek an 8th term
