Simulator Enhancements: Bellwether and Tipping Point Frequencies Added

We've added bellwether and tipping point frequencies to the 2020 presidential election simulator.  This information has also been added to the simulator daily trends page, where we show the results by state for the most recent day's run of 25,000 simulations (scroll toward bottom of the page).

Bellwether:  Percentage of simulations where the nominee winning a state also wins the election.

Tipping Point: This is the state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering the states won from largest to smallest margin of victory.

The top 5 states in each category for July 31 are below. 

 

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

Minnesota State Senate Special Primary: Overview and Live Results

The primary takes place with a number of controversies affecting the Legislature as it begins a new session

Overview and Live Results: Virginia General Assembly Special Elections

The 2025 calendar kicks off with elections to fill three vacancies. Upsets could upend the balance of power in the General Assembly

Introducing the 2026 Senate Interactive Map

22 Republicans and 13 Democrats will be up in 2026; this includes special elections in Florida and Ohio.

Introducing the 2026 House Interactive Map

Republicans start the 119th congress with a very narrow 219-215 partisan edge.

New Interactive Map: 2025-2026 Gubernatorial Elections

38 states will elect a governor through next year, starting off with New Jersey and Virginia in 2025