LIVE ELECTION RESULTS
Electoral Map Based on FiveThirtyEight Model
By 270toWin Staff
August 15, 2020
We've added an electoral map that is derived from the FiveThirtyEight 2020 Election Forecast that was released earlier this week. The map will update every two hours, reflecting the then-current probabilities for each state. The current map is below; click or tap for an interactive version.
The color breakpoints are always somewhat arbitrary with a statistical model, but we've selected ranges that seem to fit best when comparing to other forecasts. The toss-up color is used where neither candidate has a 65% chance of winning. The lightest red/blue gradient is 65%+, medium 80%+ and darkest 95%+.
This FiveThirtyEight article discusses the methodology behind their model.
Headlines
Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled
The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14
Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin
Republicans Retain House Majority
The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10
One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined
Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8
Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.
