Democrats Retain a Reduced Majority in House; 10 Races Remain Uncalled
By 270toWin Staff
November 16, 2020
Democrats will have a noticeably smaller majority when the 117th Congress begins in January. Prior to the election, the party held a 233-2011 1This includes five vacancies allocated to the party that last held the seat. edge over Republicans, with one seat (MI-3) held by Libertarian Justin Amash, who left the GOP in 2019. Republicans regained that seat and have flipped ten others thus far. Democrats have flipped three seats, two of which were virtually certain due to court-mandated redistricting in North Carolina.
Of these ten Republican gains, nine were seats the party had lost just two years ago. Freshman Democrats Gil Cisneros (CA-39), Harley Rouda (CA-48), Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26), Donna Shalala (FL-27), Abby Finkenauer (IA-1), Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2), Max Rose (NY-11), Kendra Horn (OK-5) and Joe Cunningham (SC-1) all went down to defeat. In addition, Collin Peterson failed to win a 16th term in the strongly pro-Trump MN-7. The one Democratic gain not associated with redistricting was in suburban Atlanta GA-7, where Carolyn Bourdeaux prevailed. Bourdeaux lost to incumbent Republican Rob Woodall in 2018; it was the closest House race in the country that year. Woodall did not run this year.
Here's a map of where things stand, with the 10 uncalled races shown as toss-up. Click or tap for an interactive version. For those looking ahead, keep in mind that the map will change for 2022, as redistricting will occur based on the upcoming Census results.
Update: The map below will change as these 10 races are called.
Uncalled Races
CA-21 is a rematch. T.J. Cox (D) defeated incumbent David Valadao (R) in 2018; it was the final U.S. House race to be called that year.
CA-25 is a rematch of the district's special election held in May, after the resignation of former Rep. Katie Hill.
Just 47 votes separate the candidates in IA-2, out of nearly 400,000 cast. A recount is expected. Incumbent Democrat David Loebsack did not seek reelection.
The Associated Press called NJ-7 on election night for incumbent Democrat Malinoski. Our results partner, Decision Desk HQ has not made a call as of yet; the race continues to tighten as more results come in.
The count of absentee ballots did not begin in New York until several days after the election. This has delayed the determination of a winner in several districts.
NY-2 is an open seat, with the retirement of 14 term Republican Peter King.
Heading into the election, NY-3 was seen as safely Democratic.
NY-22 is a rematch of 2018, where Anthony Brindisi (D) ousted then-incumbent Claudia Tenney (R).
Republican Burgess Owens has declared victory over Democrat Ben McAdams who flipped the district in 2018. While the race hasn't yet been called, Owens appears to have the edge.
Runoff
LA-5 will be decided in a December 5 runoff as no candidate will get a majority of the vote. However, both candidates advancing are Republicans, so the district is decided from a party perspective; that is reflected on the above map.
