Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball

The team at Sabato's Crystal Ball is out with their initial ratings for the 2024 House elections. You can read the full analysis or click the image below for an interactive map of the ratings.

After two consecutive elections resulting in narrow majorities, the forecaster calls the race for the House a toss-up. It sees 190 safe GOP seats, with 174 solidly for the Democrats. Adding in the seats rated 'likely' brings us to a Republican edge of 202-189. That leaves just 44 highly competitive seats, rated 'leaning' or 'toss-up'.

In addition to the usual uncertainties in competitive races, the likelihood of additional redistricting hangs over this next cycle. There are likely to be new maps in North Carolina and Ohio, with Republicans poised to gain several seats.  Democrats are poised to gain if lawsuits around the Voting Rights Act are resolved in favor of forcing one or more states to create additional majority-minority districts.

For more on the redistricting possibilities, see these articles:   CNN, Bloomberg