Overview and Results: Republican Caucuses in Idaho, Michigan, and Missouri
By 270toWin Staff
March 2, 2024, 10:03 AM ET
Republicans in three states will caucus on Saturday.
Heading into these events, Donald Trump has won 122 delegates, while Nikki Haley has earned 24. There could be up to an additional 125 delegates awarded Saturday: 54 in Missouri, 39 in Michigan, and 32 in Idaho.
You can see the breakdown by state at our Republican Delegate Count Map. 1,215 delegates are needed to win the nomination.
Michigan Caucus
16 of the state's 55 delegates were awarded based on the result of the statewide primary this past Tuesday. Donald Trump won 12, Nikki Haley 4.
The remaining 39 are expected to be allocated, three per congressional district, at a convention in Grand Rapids on Saturday. It is scheduled to begin at 10:00 AM Eastern Time.
However, the state party remains splintered between competing factions, despite a court decision favoring one side in the dispute. As background, the chair of the state party, Kristina Karamo, was ousted in January due to the poor state of the party's finances. Former Rep. Peter Hoekstra was then elected as chair. Karamo, however, said that the effort to replace her was invalid, and scheduled a separate caucus Saturday in Detroit. Earlier this week, a judge affirmed the removal, and her appeal of the ruling was denied.
As of Saturday morning, it appears there could be as many as four competing events. In addition to Grand Rapids and Detroit, breakaway groups were planning to hold their own conventions in Houghton Lake and Battle Creek.
Delegates
This section discusses the way the convention was scheduled to work. Given the issues discussed above, it remains to be seen how things will play out.
District delegates will participate in this event, not the general public. A candidate receiving a majority of the vote in each district receives all three delegates. This is the most likely scenario in each district given only two prominent candidates remaining in the race. However, if no candidate gets a majority, the first place finisher receives two, and the runner-one receives one.
It is expected that only the delegate allocation results will be released. The table below will be updated as that information becomes available.
Idaho Caucus
The Idaho Legislature inadvertently eliminated the presidential primary in a bill passed last year. Efforts to reinstate it failed, and thus both parties will caucus this year. Democrats will hold their caucus in late May.
Republicans will gather at 210 local sites on Saturday, with the caucus convening at 3:30 PM Eastern Time. That's 1:30 for the part of the state on Mountain Time, 12:30 PM for those observing Pacific Time. The doors will open for check-in 90 minutes earlier.
Results will be announced by the state party after the voting is complete.
Delegates
If one candidate receives a majority of the statewide vote, they will earn all 32 delegates. Otherwise, allocation is proportional to candidates receiving 15% or more of the vote. There are six candidates on the ballot. Since all but Trump and Haley have withdrawn, a majority winner is the most likely outcome.
Missouri Caucus
The parties will hold their own nominating contests after the state government canceled the presidential primary. Unlike in Idaho, and despite the objection of party leaders, this action was taken intentionally to reduce costs. Democrats have a party-run primary scheduled for March 23.
For the Republicans, Saturday's precinct caucuses are the first step in a multi-step process that will culminate with the state convention in May. It is at that convention that delegates to the national convention will be formally allocated.
With Ryan Binkley ending his campaign earlier this week, caucus-goers will be able to express their preference among three candidates: Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, and David Stuckenberg.
Attendees at each caucus site will form groups in support of their candidate. Those with less than 15% support are eliminated; the members can join another group.
According to AP, "the number of people in the newly formed candidate groups is then used to determine how many representatives each campaign will send to district-level conventions in April as well as to the state convention in May." At any given site, a candidate getting a majority of the vote "wins all the district and state convention delegates at stake in that caucus." Otherwise the allocation is proportional.
The caucuses will begin at 10:00 AM local time (11:00 AM Eastern).
Note: The results below are for the number of state delegates each candidate has won, not individual votes of those participating in the caucus.
Delegates
Missouri will send 54 delegates to the national convention. Per AP, three of them are unbound, and thus may remain unallocated.
