2020 Presidential Simulation
This isn't a popularity contest™
Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2020 presidential election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or more east to west, based on actual poll closing times.
The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts. However, it also takes into consideration the election forecast of one or more long-time qualitative forecasters.
There are a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2020 presidential election. As a result, any simulation result is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each afternoon and compile the results.
Session Statistics
These will reset when you reload the page
Total Simulations: 0
| Biden | Ties | Trump | Bellwether1 | Tipping Point2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Winning % | - | - | - | ||
| Alabama | |||||
| Alaska | |||||
| Arizona | |||||
| Arkansas | |||||
| California | |||||
| Colorado | |||||
| Connecticut | |||||
| Delaware | |||||
| District of Columbia | |||||
| Florida | |||||
| Georgia | |||||
| Hawaii | |||||
| Idaho | |||||
| Illinois | |||||
| Indiana | |||||
| Iowa | |||||
| Kansas | |||||
| Kentucky | |||||
| Louisiana | |||||
| Maine | |||||
| Maine 1st | |||||
| Maine 2nd | |||||
| Maryland | |||||
| Massachusetts | |||||
| Michigan | |||||
| Minnesota | |||||
| Mississippi | |||||
| Missouri | |||||
| Montana | |||||
| Nebraska | |||||
| Nebraska 1st | |||||
| Nebraska 2nd | |||||
| Nebraska 3rd | |||||
| Nevada | |||||
| New Hampshire | |||||
| New Jersey | |||||
| New Mexico | |||||
| New York | |||||
| North Carolina | |||||
| North Dakota | |||||
| Ohio | |||||
| Oklahoma | |||||
| Oregon | |||||
| Pennsylvania | |||||
| Rhode Island | |||||
| South Carolina | |||||
| South Dakota | |||||
| Tennessee | |||||
| Texas | |||||
| Utah | |||||
| Vermont | |||||
| Virginia | |||||
| Washington | |||||
| West Virginia | |||||
| Wisconsin | |||||
| Wyoming |
1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.
Biden >99.9%
Trump >99.9%
1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.
