2020 Battleground 270
This isn't a popularity contest™
Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results. This lets us see the full range of plausible range of electoral college outcomes, as well as the current probabilities of victory in each state.
Election Winner
Percentage of wins for each candidate
| Nov 2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Biden | 85.8% | |
| Trump | 13.7% | |
| Tie | 0.5% | |
Median Electoral Votes
The midpoint outcome
| Nov 2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Biden | 349 | |
| Trump | 189 | |
95% of all simulations fall within the full range displayed.
Results Distribution
All outcomes and frequency of occurrence
| Nov 2 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Biden | ||
| Trump | ||
Chart displays electoral votes for the selected candidate.
Results by State - November 2
Click or tap a state to see its trends over time
| State | Biden | Ties | Trump | Bellwether1 | Tipping Point2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Winning % | 85.8% | 0.5% | 13.7% | ||
| Alaska | 16.3% | 83.7% | 30.1% | 0.1% | |
| Arizona | 66.1% | 33.9% | 76.5% | 6.2% | |
| Colorado | 96.1% | 3.9% | 88.4% | 2.3% | |
| Florida | 65.6% | 34.4% | 78.5% | 17.0% | |
| Georgia | 57.8% | 42.2% | 70.2% | 6.3% | |
| Illinois | 99.9% | 0.1% | 86.3% | 0.1% | |
| Indiana | 3.4% | 96.6% | 17.1% | - | |
| Iowa | 45.9% | 54.1% | 58.6% | 1.5% | |
| Kansas | 3.5% | 96.5% | 17.3% | - | |
| Louisiana | 0.1% | 99.9% | 13.9% | - | |
| Maine | 97.1% | 2.9% | 87.8% | 0.3% | |
| Maine 2nd | 61.8% | 38.2% | 71.9% | 0.7% | |
| Michigan | 87.7% | 12.3% | 89.5% | 9.7% | |
| Minnesota | 90.5% | 9.5% | 89.1% | 5.8% | |
| Mississippi | 0.3% | 99.7% | 14.1% | - | |
| Missouri | 4.3% | 95.7% | 18.0% | - | |
| Montana | 13.6% | 86.4% | 27.4% | 0.1% | |
| Nebraska | 0.1% | 99.9% | 13.8% | - | |
| Nebraska 1st | 0.4% | 99.6% | 14.2% | - | |
| Nebraska 2nd | 74.0% | 26.0% | 81.0% | 1.0% | |
| Nevada | 82.8% | 17.2% | 86.2% | 3.6% | |
| New Hampshire | 88.8% | 11.2% | 87.8% | 2.2% | |
| New Jersey | 99.9% | 0.1% | 86.3% | - | |
| New Mexico | 98.7% | 1.3% | 87.1% | 0.5% | |
| North Carolina | 62.5% | 37.5% | 74.0% | 7.2% | |
| Ohio | 44.3% | 55.7% | 57.9% | 4.1% | |
| Oregon | 99.9% | 0.1% | 86.4% | 0.1% | |
| Pennsylvania | 81.2% | 18.8% | 88.3% | 15.6% | |
| South Carolina | 12.1% | 87.9% | 25.9% | 0.1% | |
| South Dakota | 0.1% | 99.9% | 13.8% | - | |
| Tennessee | 0.1% | 99.9% | 13.8% | - | |
| Texas | 39.7% | 60.3% | 53.5% | 4.9% | |
| Utah | 1.5% | 98.5% | 15.3% | - | |
| Virginia | 97.1% | 2.9% | 88.2% | 3.7% | |
| Wisconsin | 86.3% | 13.7% | 88.4% | 6.6% |
1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.
Biden >99.9%
Trump >99.9%
1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.
