2022 Senate Battle for Control
Senate simulator results
Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results, along with some trends over time. This lets us see the full range of plausible 2022 Senate election outcomes.
Election Winner
Percentage of time each party wins control
| Nov 7 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 54.0% | |
| Democrats | 46.0% | |
Average Total Seats
The average outcome
| Nov 7 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 50.6 | |
| Democrats | 49.4 | |
Results Distribution
All outcomes and frequency of occurrence
| Nov 7 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | ||
| Democrats | ||
Each bar displays the number of seats for the selected party, colored by the party in control at that number.
Results by State - November 7
Click or tap a state to see its trends over time
| State | Democrats | Republicans | Bellwether1 | Tipping Point2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Winning % | 46.0% | 54.0% | ||
| Arizona | 66.9% | 33.1% | 69.4% | 14.2% |
| Colorado | 94.7% | 5.3% | 51.3% | 2.4% |
| Connecticut | 99.9% | 0.1% | 46.2% | - |
| Florida | 5.2% | 94.8% | 59.0% | 1.3% |
| Georgia | 46.4% | 53.6% | 72.7% | 15.1% |
| Illinois | 99.0% | 1.0% | 47.0% | 0.2% |
| Indiana | 0.2% | 99.8% | 54.2% | - |
| Iowa | 1.0% | 99.0% | 54.9% | 0.2% |
| Missouri | 0.7% | 99.3% | 54.7% | 0.1% |
| Nevada | 40.6% | 59.4% | 73.0% | 13.6% |
| New Hampshire | 75.5% | 24.5% | 65.7% | 12.3% |
| New York | 99.9% | 0.1% | 46.1% | - |
| North Carolina | 18.6% | 81.4% | 68.7% | 8.0% |
| Ohio | 13.1% | 86.9% | 65.5% | 5.5% |
| Oregon | 99.5% | 0.5% | 46.6% | 0.1% |
| Pennsylvania | 53.1% | 46.9% | 71.7% | 14.6% |
| South Carolina | 0.1% | 99.9% | 54.1% | - |
| Utah | 2.6% | 97.4% | 56.6% | 0.5% |
| Washington | 95.2% | 4.8% | 50.8% | 2.3% |
| Wisconsin | 23.1% | 76.9% | 70.8% | 9.5% |
1 Percentage of simulations where party wins the state and control of the Senate.
2 The state that gives one party control of the Senate, when ordering from smallest to largest margin of victory.
Democrats >99.9%
Republicans >99.9%
1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated party.
