Arizona 2024 Presidential Election Polls
Harris vs. Trump
| Source | Date | Sample | Harris | Trump | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of 17 Polls† | 46.8% | 48.5% | - | |||
| Trafalgar Group | 11/04/2024 | 1,090 LV ±2.9% | 47% | 49% | 4% | |
| Victory Insights | 11/04/2024 | 750 LV | 48% | 49% | 3% | |
| Emerson College | 11/04/2024 | 900 LV ±3.2% | 48% | 50% | 2% | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 11/03/2024 | 800 LV ±3% | 46% | 49% | 5% | |
| NY Times / Siena College | 11/03/2024 | 1,025 LV ±3.4% | 45% | 49% | 6% | |
| Morning Consult | 11/03/2024 | 666 LV ±4% | 48% | 48% | 4% | |
| AtlasIntel | 11/02/2024 | 967 LV ±3% | 46% | 52% | 2% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 11/01/2024 | 652 LV ±3.6% | 47% | 48% | 5% | |
| Data for Progress | 11/01/2024 | 1,079 LV ±3% | 47% | 48% | 5% | |
| The Times (UK) / YouGov | 11/01/2024 | 856 LV ±4.4% | 48% | 48% | 4% | |
| AtlasIntel | 10/31/2024 | 1,005 LV ±3% | 47% | 51% | 2% | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 10/31/2024 | 775 LV ±3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5% | |
| RABA Research | 10/30/2024 | 589 LV ±4% | 45% | 43% | 12% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/29/2024 | 901 LV ±3.1% | 47% | 49% | 4% | |
| AtlasIntel | 10/29/2024 | 1,458 LV ±3% | 47% | 51% | 2% | |
| Data Orbital | 10/29/2024 | 550 LV ±4.3% | 42% | 50% | 8% | |
| CNN | 10/29/2024 | 781 LV ±4.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% | |
| Trafalgar Group | 10/27/2024 | 1,094 LV ±2.9% | 46% | 48% | 6% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/25/2024 | 710 LV ±3.5% | 46% | 48% | 6% | |
| Marist Poll | 10/24/2024 | 1,193 LV ±3.7% | 49% | 50% | 1% | |
| Bloomberg / Morning Consult | 10/23/2024 | 861 LV ±3% | 49% | 49% | 2% | |
| HighGround | 10/22/2024 | 400 LV ±4.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 10/22/2024 | 800 LV ±3% | 47% | 50% | 3% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/21/2024 | 691 LV ±3.5% | 46% | 49% | 5% | |
| Wash. Post - Schar School | 10/21/2024 | 580 LV ±5% | 46% | 49% | 5% | |
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Harris vs. TrumpIncluding Third Parties and Independents
A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Harris and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average.
| Source | Date | Sample | Harris | Stein | Kennedy | West | Oliver | Trump | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of 9 Polls† | 46.3% | 1.1% | - | 0.0% | 1.0% | 48.6% | - | |||
| NY Times / Siena College | 11/03/2024 | 1,025 LV ±3.4% | 44% | 2% | - | - | 1% | 48% | 5% | |
| AtlasIntel | 11/02/2024 | 967 LV ±3% | 46% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 52% | 0% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 11/01/2024 | 652 LV ±3.6% | 47% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 48% | 3% | |
| Data for Progress | 11/01/2024 | 1,079 LV ±3% | 47% | 1% | - | - | 0% | 48% | 4% | |
| The Times (UK) / YouGov | 11/01/2024 | 856 LV ±4.4% | 48% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 48% | 4% | |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 10/31/2024 | 775 LV ±3.5% | 47% | 2% | - | - | 0% | 48% | 3% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/29/2024 | 901 LV ±3.1% | 47% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 49% | 2% | |
| AtlasIntel | 10/29/2024 | 1,458 LV ±3% | 46% | 1% | - | - | 0% | 51% | 2% | |
| Data Orbital | 10/29/2024 | 550 LV ±4.3% | 42% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 50% | 6% | |
| CNN | 10/29/2024 | 781 LV ±4.4% | 48% | 1% | - | - | 2% | 47% | 2% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/25/2024 | 710 LV ±3.5% | 46% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 48% | 4% | |
| Bloomberg / Morning Consult | 10/23/2024 | 861 LV ±3% | 48% | 1% | - | - | 2% | 48% | 1% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/21/2024 | 691 LV ±3.5% | 46% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 49% | 3% | |
| AtlasIntel | 10/19/2024 | 1,440 LV ±3% | 49% | 1% | - | - | 0% | 49% | 1% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 10/16/2024 | 1,141 LV ±2.7% | 46% | 1% | - | - | 1% | 48% | 4% | |
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Biden vs. TrumpIncludes polls recorded through the president' withdrawal from the race on July 21, 2024.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Trump | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of 5 Polls† | 41.2% | 46.4% | - | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | 7/21/2024 | 454 LV ±4.2% | 40% | 44% | 16% | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 7/18/2024 | 800 LV ±3% | 44% | 49% | 7% | |
| Emerson College | 7/18/2024 | 1,000 RV ±3% | 40% | 47% | 13% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 7/15/2024 | 419 LV | 39% | 43% | 18% | |
| The Times (UK) / YouGov | 7/15/2024 | 900 RV ±3.9% | 37% | 44% | 19% | |
| Bloomberg / Morning Consult | 7/06/2024 | 781 RV ±4% | 45% | 48% | 7% | |
| Emerson College | 7/02/2024 | 1,000 RV ±3% | 42% | 46% | 12% | |
| North Star Opinion Research | 6/21/2024 | 600 LV ±4% | 42% | 48% | 10% | |
| Emerson College | 6/20/2024 | 1,000 RV ±3% | 43% | 47% | 10% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 6/17/2024 | 430 LV | 38% | 40% | 22% | |
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Biden vs. TrumpIncluding Third Parties and Independents
A separate average calculation for the subset of polls that have a question that names one or more notable candidates in addition to Biden and Trump. The inclusion of these names can significantly influence the polling average.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Stein | Kennedy | West | Oliver | Trump | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average of 5 Polls† | 36.6% | 1.4% | 8.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 44.2% | - | |||
| Redfield & Wilton | 7/21/2024 | 454 LV ±4.2% | 40% | 1% | 7% | - | 1% | 44% | 7% | |
| Emerson College | 7/18/2024 | 1,000 RV ±3% | 36% | 1% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 46% | 9% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 7/15/2024 | 419 LV | 39% | 1% | 7% | - | 1% | 43% | 9% | |
| The Times (UK) / YouGov | 7/15/2024 | 900 RV ±3.9% | 37% | 2% | 5% | 1% | - | 44% | 11% | |
| Bloomberg / Morning Consult | 7/06/2024 | 781 RV ±4% | 38% | 0% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 45% | 7% | |
| Emerson College | 7/02/2024 | 1,000 RV ±3% | 38% | 1% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 44% | 10% | |
| North Star Opinion Research | 6/21/2024 | 600 LV ±4% | 32% | 3% | 13% | - | 2% | 42% | 8% | |
| Emerson College | 6/20/2024 | 1,000 RV ±3% | 39% | 1% | 8% | 1% | - | 43% | 8% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 6/17/2024 | 430 LV | 38% | 1% | 6% | - | 0% | 40% | 15% | |
| AARP | 6/12/2024 | 600 LV ±4% | 37% | 3% | 11% | - | 0% | 45% | 4% | |
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†The average includes the most recent poll from each source released within two weeks of the November 5 election. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls from the date of the most recent poll, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included.
When did it last happen?
This feature shows the most recent election where the state voted with or against the presidential winner in each party. Click the year to see the corresponding electoral map and results.Arizona Winner
Biden
Trump
Romney
Election Winner
Biden
Trump
Obama
2020
2016
2012
Never
