2024 Presidential Simulation

This isn't a popularity contest™

The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts. Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2024 presidential election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or more east to west, based on actual poll closing times.

There are a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2024 presidential election. No individual result is particularly likely to happen and some individual simulations may seem unrealistic. Those should decline as the election nears and uncertainty decreases.

To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each morning and compile the results.

Speed
no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
State District
1 2 3
ME
NE

Session Statistics

These will reset when you reload the page

Total Simulations: 0

Harris Ties Trump Bellwether1 Tipping Point2
Overall Winning % - - -
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maine 1st
Maine 2nd
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nebraska 1st
Nebraska 2nd
Nebraska 3rd
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.

Harris >99.9%

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maine 1st
Maine 2nd
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nebraska 1st
Nebraska 2nd
Nebraska 3rd
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

Trump >99.9%

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
District of Columbia
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maine 1st
Maine 2nd
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
Nebraska 1st
Nebraska 2nd
Nebraska 3rd
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Dakota
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming

1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.