2024 Presidential Simulation
This isn't a popularity contest™
The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts. Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated 2024 presidential election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or more east to west, based on actual poll closing times.
There are a wide range of possible outcomes for the 2024 presidential election. No individual result is particularly likely to happen and some individual simulations may seem unrealistic. Those should decline as the election nears and uncertainty decreases.
To get a more complete picture, we run 25,000 simulations each morning and compile the results.
Session Statistics
These will reset when you reload the page
Total Simulations: 0
| Harris | Ties | Trump | Bellwether1 | Tipping Point2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Winning % | - | - | - | ||
| Alabama | |||||
| Alaska | |||||
| Arizona | |||||
| Arkansas | |||||
| California | |||||
| Colorado | |||||
| Connecticut | |||||
| Delaware | |||||
| District of Columbia | |||||
| Florida | |||||
| Georgia | |||||
| Hawaii | |||||
| Idaho | |||||
| Illinois | |||||
| Indiana | |||||
| Iowa | |||||
| Kansas | |||||
| Kentucky | |||||
| Louisiana | |||||
| Maine | |||||
| Maine 1st | |||||
| Maine 2nd | |||||
| Maryland | |||||
| Massachusetts | |||||
| Michigan | |||||
| Minnesota | |||||
| Mississippi | |||||
| Missouri | |||||
| Montana | |||||
| Nebraska | |||||
| Nebraska 1st | |||||
| Nebraska 2nd | |||||
| Nebraska 3rd | |||||
| Nevada | |||||
| New Hampshire | |||||
| New Jersey | |||||
| New Mexico | |||||
| New York | |||||
| North Carolina | |||||
| North Dakota | |||||
| Ohio | |||||
| Oklahoma | |||||
| Oregon | |||||
| Pennsylvania | |||||
| Rhode Island | |||||
| South Carolina | |||||
| South Dakota | |||||
| Tennessee | |||||
| Texas | |||||
| Utah | |||||
| Vermont | |||||
| Virginia | |||||
| Washington | |||||
| West Virginia | |||||
| Wisconsin | |||||
| Wyoming |
1 Percentage of simulations where nominee winning state wins the election.
2 The state that gives the election winner 270 electoral votes, when ordering from largest to smallest margin of victory.
Harris >99.9%
Trump >99.9%
1 Bellwether percentage for >99.9% states is the same as the overall winning percentage of the associated nominee.
