2026 Senate Election Forecasts
These maps reflect the ratings of a number of quantitative and qualitative forecasters, as well as some consensus projections. Click or tap any of the thumbnails for an interactive version that you can use to create and share your own 2026 Senate forecast.
2026 Senate Election: Consensus Forecast
The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027.
This map is a composite of ratings by The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and RacetotheWH. Only seats rated safe by all are three are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.
February 13: Initial projection. Additional forecasts will be included as they become available.
Cook Political Report 2026 Senate Ratings
The current 2026 Senate ratings from The Cook Political Report. Use them to create and share your own Senate forecast.
The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027.
February 11: Initial ratings. Read the analysis ($) >
February 13: Minnesota Likely to Leans Democrat after the retirement of Tina Smith.
Crystal Ball 2026 Senate Ratings
The current 2026 Senate ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. Use them to create and share your own Senate forecast.
The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027.
February 13: Initial ratings. Read the analysis >
After the article was published, Sen. Tina Smith (D-MN) announced her retirement. Minnesota went from Likely to Leans Democrat.
Inside Elections 2026 Senate Ratings
This map reflects the current 2026 Senate ratings from Inside Elections. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own forecast.
The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027.
January 9: These initial 2026 ratings are divided between Battleground and Safe. The forecaster will add more granular ratings later in the cycle. Three Democratic-held seats (GA, MI, NH) and two Republican-held seats (ME, NC) are initially in the Battleground category.
RacetotheWH 2026 Senate Forecast
The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027.
This map reflects the 2026 Senate Forecast from RacetotheWH. It uses a data-driven model created by Logan Phillips, who founded the website in 2020.
The Toss-up color is used where neither candidate has a 65% chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (65%+) Lean (75%+), Likely (85%+), Safe (95%+).
The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2026 Senate forecast.
