2026 Senate Election: Consensus Forecast

As of February 13, 2025

The U.S. Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (including two independents). There are 35 seats up in 2026 - including special elections in Florida and Ohio - of which 23 are held Republicans. Democrats will need a net gain of four seats to retake control in 2027.

This map is a composite of ratings by The Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and RacetotheWH. Only seats rated safe by all are three are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

February 13: Initial projection. Additional forecasts will be included as they become available.

Democrats
Republicans
no 2026 election
no 2026 election
MA
RI
NJ
DE
 
VP

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Senate Elections 2026
Current 47
45 2
53
Consensus Forecast 45
43 2
51 4
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

Current 2026 2028^ 2030
45 13 15 17
2 2
53 22 17 14

^ Excludes Florida and Ohio seats with special elections in 2026

The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Lisa Murkowski
2002 5th
AK Dan Sullivan
2015 2nd
AL Katie Britt
2023 1st
AR John Boozman
2011 3rd
AZ Mark Kelly
2020 2nd
AZ Ruben Gallego
2025 1st
CA Alex Padilla
2021 2nd
CA Adam Schiff
2024 2nd
CO Michael Bennet
2009 4th
CT Richard Blumenthal
2011 3rd
CT Chris Murphy
2013 3rd
DE Lisa Blunt Rochester
2025 1st
FL Ashley Moody
2025 1st
2026 special election for final two years of Marco Rubio's term
FL Rick Scott
2019 2nd
GA Raphael Warnock
2021 2nd
GA Jon Ossoff
2021 1st
HI Brian Schatz
2012 3rd
HI Mazie Hirono
2013 3rd
IA Chuck Grassley
1981 8th
IA Joni Ernst
2015 2nd
ID Mike Crapo
1999 5th
IL Tammy Duckworth
2017 2nd
IN Todd Young
2017 2nd
IN Jim Banks
2025 1st
KS Jerry Moran
2011 3rd
KS Roger Marshall
2021 1st
KY Rand Paul
2011 3rd
LA John Kennedy
2017 2nd
MA Elizabeth Warren
2013 3rd
MD Chris Van Hollen
2017 2nd
MD Angela Alsobrooks
2025 1st
ME Angus King
2013 3rd
ME Susan Collins
1997 5th
MI Elissa Slotkin
2025 1st
MI Gary Peters
2015 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2026.
MN Amy Klobuchar
2007 4th
MN Tina Smith
2018 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2026.
MO Eric Schmitt
2023 1st
MO Josh Hawley
2019 2nd
MS Roger Wicker
2007 4th
MT Tim Sheehy
2025 1st
MT Steve Daines
2015 2nd
NC Ted Budd
2023 1st
NC Thom Tillis
2015 2nd
ND John Hoeven
2011 3rd
ND Kevin Cramer
2019 2nd
NE Deb Fischer
2013 3rd
NH Maggie Hassan
2017 2nd
NH Jeanne Shaheen
2009 3rd
NJ Andy Kim
2024 2nd
NM Martin Heinrich
2013 3rd
NM Ben Ray Lujan
2021 1st
NV Catherine Cortez Masto
2017 2nd
NV Jacky Rosen
2019 2nd
NY Chuck Schumer
1999 5th
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
2009 4th
OH Jon Husted
2025 1st
2026 special election for final two years of JD Vance's term
OH Bernie Moreno
2025 1st
OK James Lankford
2015 3rd
OR Ron Wyden
1996 6th
PA John Fetterman
2023 1st
PA David McCormick
2025 1st
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
2007 4th
SC Tim Scott
2013 3rd
SC Lindsey Graham
2003 4th
SD John Thune
2005 4th
TN Marsha Blackburn
2019 2nd
TX Ted Cruz
2013 3rd
TX John Cornyn
2003 4th
UT Mike Lee
2011 3rd
UT John Curtis
2025 1st
VA Tim Kaine
2013 3rd
VT Peter Welch
2023 1st
VT Bernie Sanders
2007 4th
WA Patty Murray
1993 6th
WA Maria Cantwell
2001 5th
WI Ron Johnson
2011 3rd
WI Tammy Baldwin
2013 3rd
WV Jim Justice
2025 1st
WY John Barrasso
2007 4th
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL Tommy Tuberville
2021 1st
AR Tom Cotton
2015 2nd
CO John Hickenlooper
2021 1st
DE Chris Coons
2011 3rd
ID Jim Risch
2009 3rd
IL Dick Durbin
1997 5th
KY Mitch McConnell
1985 7th
LA Bill Cassidy
2015 2nd
MA Ed Markey
2013 3rd
MS Cindy Hyde-Smith
2018 2nd
NE Pete Ricketts
2023 1st
NJ Cory Booker
2013 3rd
OK Markwayne Mullin
2023 1st
OR Jeff Merkley
2009 3rd
RI Jack Reed
1997 5th
SD Mike Rounds
2015 2nd
TN Bill Hagerty
2021 1st
VA Mark Warner
2009 3rd
WV Shelley Moore Capito
2015 2nd
WY Cynthia Lummis
2021 1st