Forecasts in the 2022 Consensus Maps

The consensus maps for the 2022 U.S. Senate, U.S. House, and gubernatorial elections are derived by aggregating the following forecasts.

To arrive at the consensus map, we assign a party-specific point value to each rating category (safe, likely, leaning, tilt, toss-up). From there we calculate the average rating. Those average ratings determine the consensus rating, which may or may not be the most frequent one.

Only states rated safe by at least six of the forecasts are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.