FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-only forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls alone tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
House Updates: Patronis, Fine Seated After Wins; Pappas to Seek NH Senate Seat
The narrow GOP advantage expands to 220-213 as the newest members are quickly sworn in after their special election victories
Overview and Live Results: Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
One of the more consequential races of 2025 will decide the ideological balance of the court
Overview and Live Results: Florida Congressional Special Elections
While winning might be a bridge too far for Dems in these deep red districts, a close outcome will
Live Results: April 1 Legislative Special Elections
Voters in Florida, Oklahoma, and South Carolina will begin the process of filling a number of legislative vacancies
Live Results: Omaha Mayoral Primary
Republican Mayor Jean Stothert seeks an unprecedented 4th term in office
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