FiveThirtyEight Polls-Only Forecast
This isn’t a popularity contest™
Updated hourly, this is an electoral map derived from the polls-only forecast from FiveThirtyEight. This is defined as "what polls alone tell us about Nov. 8."
The toss-up tan color is used when no candidate has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Clinton or Trump, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (80%+), Dark (90%+).
The ratings below reflect the final update before the 2016 election. Use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Cook Political Report Releases Initial 2026 House Ratings
The midterm election is shaping up to be another closely-contested battle for control of the chamber
Overview and Live Results: Florida Special Congressional Primaries
The Republican nominees that emerge will be heavily favored in special elections to be held on April 1
Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters Won't Seek Reelection in 2026
He is completing his second term. He chaired the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the past two cycles
Cook Political Report Introduces 2026 Governor Ratings
36 states will hold elections next year; the forecaster sees five toss-ups with their initial ratings
Live Results: South Carolina State House District 113 Special Primary
Three Democrats are vying to replace former Rep. Marvin Pendarvis, who resigned this past September.
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