Electoral Maps: Compare the Consensus Forecast to Polling
By 270toWin Staff
July 6, 2024, 11:17 AM ET
Compare the expert consensus forecast with a map based exclusively on polling.
The major difference is that the expert forecast is forward looking (i.e., the election is in November), while the polling map is more of a look at "if the election was today."
As the election draws near, the two maps should converge. State-level polling will become more frequent, and will also get greater weighting in the expert forecasts.
Click either map for an interactive version. The images on this page will automatically update as the underlying maps change.
Consensus Forecast
This map tracks the consensus forecast for the 2024 presidential election. It is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only states rated safe by a large majority of forecasters are shown in the darkest shade of blue or red on the map. This allows for a more inclusive look at states that could be competitive in the right circumstances.
Polling Map
This map tracks the Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets closer.
View the most recent polls. View the current polling averages by state.
UPDATE: The map below, as well as the links above, now reflect a Harris vs. Trump general election.
