Legal U.S. Prediction Markets for President are Live
By 270toWin Staff
October 4, 2024, 10:36 AM ET
For the first time in about a century, it is legal for U.S. residents to trade election contracts in a regulated prediction market.
This shift came after a legal battle between Kalshi, a prediction market for event contracts and its regulator, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
On Friday morning, Kalshi launched a market allowing users to predict the winner of next month's presidential election.
At this early point, market participants are evenly split between Harris and Trump. Click the image for current pricing.
There are also markets for control of each branch of congress, although these are currently only available in multiples of 5,000 contracts.
At publication time, Republicans had a 73% chance of winning the Senate, while Democrats were 63% likely to win the House.
A Kalshi blog post indicated other markets are coming soon.
Other political prediction markets, including the two below, have been active, but with restrictions.
Polymarket has seen over $1 billion worth of volume in its Harris vs. Trump market. However, this exchange is not available to U.S. residents.
PredictIt operates on a 2014 CFTC waiver, but participants are limited to $850 in any contract.
