House Election Update: One District Remains Uncalled
By 270toWin Staff
November 28, 2024, 7:38 AM ET
Vote counts and race projections on 270toWin are by Decision Desk HQ.
The embedded counter below will update from 220-214 when the final race (CA-13) is called.
On Wednesday, Democrat Derek Tran was projected as the winner of California's 45th congressional district. He defeated two-term Republican Rep. Michelle Steel.
With only CA-13 remaining to be called, Republicans have retained the majority with 220 seats, Democrats have 214. Thus far, 16 seats have flipped. Ten incumbents have been defeated. See the Changing Parties table >
The net change after all this is ZERO seats. Heading into the election, Republicans held 221 seats, Democrats 214.
CA-13
Democrat Adam Gray appears to have the advantage over Republican Rep. John Duarte. At the Kalshi prediction market, Gray is seen as 97% likely to flip the seat as of the time of this article.
In 2022, this was the second closest congressional race in the country, with Duarte prevailing over Gray by 0.4%. The rematch looks like it will end up even closer. By the way, this race wasn't called by AP until December 2 in 2022.
If Gray does end up winning, Speaker Mike Johnson will have an extremely narrow majority of 219-215 to work with as the 119th Congress begins in January. The Republican total is lower than 220 because Matt Gaetz (FL-01) has resigned.
As ABC News reports, "It could fall further to 217 depending on the timing of the resignations of Reps. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., and Mike Waltz, R-Fla., who are set to join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassador to United Nations and national security adviser, respectively."
Special elections for both Florida seats will be held on April 1. The New York election has not been scheduled; Stefanik's role requires Senate confirmation so she is likely to be in her seat for longer than Waltz is in his.
