FiveThirtyEight Governor Forecast

Final Ratings: November 6, 2018

This is a governor forecast map derived from the probabilities associated with the FiveThirtyEight Governor Forecast (Classic Version).

The toss-up tan color is used when neither party has a 60% or higher chance of winning. Color gradients are used to show higher Democratic and Republican probabilities, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). The map reflects the model output as of the timestamp below it.

Use this map to create and share your own forecast for this year's 36 races for governor.

Current Governors by Party

Interactive Map Contested 2018

2019 Governors by Party

no 2018 election

MA
RI
CT
MD

Map :

Map Color Palette

- +

Safe	Likely	Leans	Tilt	Toss-up

User-Generated Map Map Library

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Governor Elections


Current	16	33	1
Pro	18	22	0	10
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map

Upcoming Elections

2018	2019	2020
9	1	2
26	4	7
1	0	0

2018 Gubernatorial Elections

State	Incumbent	Since	Term
AK	Bill Walker	2014	1st
AK
AZ	Doug Ducey	2015	1st
AZ
CO	John Hickenlooper	2011	2nd
CO	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
CT	Dannel Malloy	2011	2nd
CT	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL	Rick Scott	2011	2nd
FL	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
GA	Nathan Deal	2011	2nd
GA	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
IA	Kim Reynolds	2017	1st
IA
IL	Bruce Rauner	2015	1st
IL
KS	Jeff Colyer	2018	1st
KS	Incumbent defeated in primary for 2018 election.
MD	Larry Hogan	2015	1st
MD
ME	Paul LePage	2011	2nd
ME	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
MI	Rick Snyder	2011	2nd
MI	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
MN	Mark Dayton	2011	2nd
MN	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
NH	Chris Sununu	2017	1st
NH
NM	Susana Martinez	2011	2nd
NM	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
NV	Brian Sandoval	2011	2nd
NV	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
OH	John Kasich	2011	2nd
OH	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
OK	Mary Fallin	2011	2nd
OK	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
OR	Kate Brown	2015	1st
OR
PA	Tom Wolf	2015	1st
PA
RI	Gina Raimondo	2015	1st
RI
SC	Henry McMaster	2017	1st
SC
SD	Dennis Daugaard	2011	2nd
SD	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
TN	Bill Haslam	2011	2nd
TN	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
WI	Scott Walker	2011	2nd
WI
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AL	Kay Ivey	2017	1st
AL
AR	Asa Hutchinson	2015	1st
AR
CA	Jerry Brown	2011	2nd
CA	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
DE	John Carney	2017	1st
DE
HI	David Ige	2014	1st
HI
ID	Butch Otter	2007	3rd
ID	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
IN	Eric Holcomb	2017	1st
IN
KY	Matt Bevin	2015	1st
KY
LA	John Bel Edwards	2016	1st
LA
MA	Charlie Baker	2015	1st
MA
MO	Mike Parson	2018	1st
MO
MS	Phil Bryant	2012	2nd
MS	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2019 due to term limits.
MT	Steve Bullock	2013	2nd
MT	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2020 due to term limits.
NC	Roy Cooper	2017	1st
NC
ND	Doug Burgum	2016	1st
ND
NE	Pete Ricketts	2015	1st
NE
NJ	Phil Murphy	2018	1st
NJ
NY	Andrew Cuomo	2011	2nd
NY
TX	Greg Abbott	2015	1st
TX
UT	Gary Herbert	2009	3rd
UT
VA	Ralph Northam	2018	1st
VA	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2021 due to term limits.
VT	Phil Scott	2017	1st
VT
WA	Jay Inslee	2013	2nd
WA
WV	Jim Justice	2017	1st
WV
WY	Matt Mead	2011	2nd
WY	Incumbent cannot run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.