2018 House Election Simulation

Who will control the House?

Select the Run Simulation button to conduct a simulated House of Representatives 2018 midterm election. You can choose to have the map populate randomly or by congressional district poll closing times. Seats changing parties in the simulation will be displayed in a table below the map.

The simulator is primarily derived from the data-driven 2018 U.S. House Midterms Election Forecast from The Crosstab by G. Elliott Morris. However, it also takes into consideration the consensus projection of a number of long-time qualitative forecasters.

There are a wide range of possible outcomes for this year’s election. As a result, any simulation is plausible based on current forecasts, but no individual result is particularly likely to happen. The party winning 218 or more seats in the actual midterm election will control the U.S. House when the 116th Congress begins in January.

Democrats
Republicans
no 2018 election
no 2018 election
Full Size

2018 Election: Final Forecast

218 Needed for Control

The final model update took place on the morning of November 6th (Election Day). These are results for the 5,000 most recent simulations as of noon Eastern Time that day.

Control Average Midpoint 80% Range*
Democrats 84.2% 232 231 214-251
Republicans 15.8% 203 204 184-221
Change^ +37 +36

* 80% probability the seats won by each party is within this range
^ Based on the current 240-195 House (vacancies assigned to previous incumbent's party)
District Incumbent Party Consensus Sim Result