FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Final Ratings: November 6, 2018

This is a Senate forecast map derived from the probabilities associated with the FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast (Classic Version). Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2018 House forecast.

The toss-up tan color is used when neither party has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher Democratic and Republican probabilities, deepening as the chance of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+). These ranges match those used on the FiveThirtyEight site.

The map reflects the model output as of the timestamp below it.

Current Senate 115^th Congress

Interactive Map Contested 2018

2019 Senate 116^th Congress

no 2018 election

MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD

VP

Map :

Map Color Palette

- +

Safe	Likely	Leans	Tilt	Toss-up

User-Generated Map Map Library

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Senate Elections 2018


Current	49	51
Pro	44	50	6
Forecast

Pro: 2018 Consensus Forecast
Forecast: Totals on interactive map

Upcoming Elections

Now	2018	2020*	2022^
47	24	11	12
2	2
51	9	21	21

* Excludes MN and MS seats to be filled by special election in 2018
^ Excludes AZ seat to be filled by special election in 2020

* The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

State	Incumbent	Since	Term
AZ	Jeff Flake	2013	1st
AZ	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
FL	Bill Nelson	2001	3rd
FL
IN	Joe Donnelly	2013	1st
IN
ME	Angus King	2013	1st
ME
MI	Debbie Stabenow	2001	3rd
MI
MN	Tina Smith	2018	1st
MN
MO	Claire McCaskill	2007	2nd
MO
MS	Cindy Hyde-Smith	2018	1st
MS
MT	Jon Tester	2007	2nd
MT
ND	Heidi Heitkamp	2013	1st
ND
NJ	Bob Menendez	2006	3rd
NJ
NV	Dean Heller	2011	2nd
NV
OH	Sherrod Brown	2007	2nd
OH
PA	Bob Casey	2007	2nd
PA
TN	Bob Corker	2007	2nd
TN	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
TX	Ted Cruz	2013	1st
TX
VT	Bernie Sanders	2007	2nd
VT
WI	Tammy Baldwin	2013	1st
WI
WV	Joe Manchin	2011	2nd
WV
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AK	Lisa Murkowski	2002	4th
AK
AK	Dan Sullivan	2015	1st
AK
AL	Richard Shelby	1987	6th
AL
AL	Doug Jones	2018	1st
AL
AR	John Boozman	2011	2nd
AR
AR	Tom Cotton	2015	1st
AR
AZ	Jon Kyl	2018	1st
AZ
CA	Kamala Harris	2017	1st
CA
CA	Dianne Feinstein	1992	5th
CA
CO	Michael Bennet	2009	3rd
CO
CO	Cory Gardner	2015	1st
CO
CT	Richard Blumenthal	2011	2nd
CT
CT	Chris Murphy	2013	1st
CT
DE	Tom Carper	2001	3rd
DE
DE	Christopher Coons	2011	2nd
DE
FL	Marco Rubio	2011	2nd
FL
GA	Johnny Isakson	2005	3rd
GA
GA	David Perdue	2015	1st
GA
HI	Brian Schatz	2012	2nd
HI
HI	Mazie Hirono	2013	1st
HI
IA	Chuck Grassley	1981	7th
IA
IA	Joni Ernst	2015	1st
IA
ID	Mike Crapo	1999	4th
ID
ID	Jim Risch	2009	2nd
ID
IL	Tammy Duckworth	2017	1st
IL
IL	Dick Durbin	1997	4th
IL
IN	Todd Young	2017	1st
IN
KS	Jerry Moran	2011	2nd
KS
KS	Pat Roberts	1997	4th
KS
KY	Rand Paul	2011	2nd
KY
KY	Mitch McConnell	1985	6th
KY
LA	John Kennedy	2017	1st
LA
LA	Bill Cassidy	2015	1st
LA
MA	Elizabeth Warren	2013	1st
MA
MA	Ed Markey	2013	2nd
MA
MD	Chris Van Hollen	2017	1st
MD
MD	Ben Cardin	2007	2nd
MD
ME	Susan Collins	1997	4th
ME
MI	Gary Peters	2015	1st
MI
MN	Amy Klobuchar	2007	2nd
MN
MO	Roy Blunt	2011	2nd
MO
MS	Roger Wicker	2007	2nd
MS
MT	Steve Daines	2015	1st
MT
NC	Richard Burr	2005	3rd
NC
NC	Thom Tillis	2015	1st
NC
ND	John Hoeven	2011	2nd
ND
NE	Deb Fischer	2013	1st
NE
NE	Ben Sasse	2015	1st
NE
NH	Maggie Hassan	2017	1st
NH
NH	Jeanne Shaheen	2009	2nd
NH
NJ	Cory Booker	2013	2nd
NJ
NM	Martin Heinrich	2013	1st
NM
NM	Tom Udall	2009	2nd
NM
NV	Catherine Masto	2017	1st
NV
NY	Chuck Schumer	1999	4th
NY
NY	Kirsten Gillibrand	2009	2nd
NY
OH	Rob Portman	2011	2nd
OH
OK	James Lankford	2015	2nd
OK
OK	Jim Inhofe	1995	5th
OK
OR	Ron Wyden	1996	5th
OR
OR	Jeff Merkley	2009	2nd
OR
PA	Patrick Toomey	2011	2nd
PA
RI	Sheldon Whitehouse	2007	2nd
RI
RI	Jack Reed	1997	4th
RI
SC	Tim Scott	2013	2nd
SC
SC	Lindsey Graham	2003	3rd
SC
SD	John Thune	2005	3rd
SD
SD	Mike Rounds	2015	1st
SD
TN	Lamar Alexander	2003	3rd
TN
TX	John Cornyn	2003	3rd
TX
UT	Mike Lee	2011	2nd
UT
UT	Orrin Hatch	1977	7th
UT	Incumbent not running for re-election in 2018.
VA	Tim Kaine	2013	1st
VA
VA	Mark Warner	2009	2nd
VA
VT	Patrick Leahy	1975	8th
VT
WA	Patty Murray	1993	5th
WA
WA	Maria Cantwell	2001	3rd
WA
WI	Ron Johnson	2011	2nd
WI
WV	Shelley Capito	2015	1st
WV
WY	John Barrasso	2007	2nd
WY
WY	Mike Enzi	1997	4th
WY