UPCOMING

Niskanen Center Senate Forecast

As of September 15, 2020

Note: As of December 2, 2020, the Senate was 52-48 Republican, as Arizona special election winner Mark Kelly (D) was seated. While this page is meant to reflect the Senate composition leading into the 2020 election, we’ve temporarily updated the map for this change.

The current 2020 Senate forecast from Rachel Bitecofer of the Niskanen Center. Read the full analysis here. 

Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 Senate forecast.

September 15: Alabama moves from Leans to Safe Republican; Alaska Safe Republican to Toss-up; Colorado Likely to Safe Democratic; Georgia (regular) Leans Republican to Toss-up; Kansas and Montana Toss-up to Likely Republican; Kentucky Likely to Safe Republican; Michigan and Minnesota Safe to Likely Democratic; North Carolina Leans to Likely Democratic; South Carolina and Texas Leans to Likely Republican.

Democrats
Republicans
no 2020 election
no 2020 election
MA
RI
NJ
DE
 
VP
S

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up

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Senate Elections 2020
Current 48 52
Consensus Forecast 49 46 5
Forecast

Forecast: Totals on interactive map

Upcoming Elections

Jan. 2019 2020 2022^ 2024
45 12 12 21
2 2
53 23 20 10

^ Excludes AZ & GA seats with special elections in 2020

* The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. To break a tie, use the VP box on the interactive map to select the VP in 2021 (i.e., winning party in 2020 presidential election).

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Dan Sullivan
2015 1st
Al Gross
Dan Sullivan*
AL Doug Jones
2018 1st
Doug Jones*
Tommy Tuberville
AZ Martha McSally
2019 1st
Special election winner Mark Kelly (D) replaced McSally on 12/2/20
Mark Kelly
Martha McSally*
CO Cory Gardner
2015 1st
John Hickenlooper
Cory Gardner*
GA Kelly Loeffler
2020 1st
Raphael Warnock
Kelly Loeffler*
GA David Perdue
2015 1st
Jon Ossoff
David Perdue*
IA Joni Ernst
2015 1st
Theresa Greenfield
Joni Ernst*
KS Pat Roberts
1997 4th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Barbara Bollier
Roger Marshall
KY Mitch McConnell
1985 6th
Amy McGrath
Mitch McConnell*
ME Susan Collins
1997 4th
Sara Gideon
Susan Collins*
MI Gary Peters
2015 1st
Gary Peters*
John James
MN Tina Smith
2018 1st
Tina Smith*
Jason Lewis
MS Cindy Hyde-Smith
2018 1st
Mike Espy
Cindy Hyde-Smith*
MT Steve Daines
2015 1st
Steve Bullock
Steve Daines*
NC Thom Tillis
2015 1st
Cal Cunningham
Thom Tillis*
NH Jeanne Shaheen
2009 2nd
Jeanne Shaheen*
Bryant Messner
NM Tom Udall
2009 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Ben R Lujan
Mark Ronchetti
SC Lindsey Graham
2003 3rd
Jaime Harrison
Lindsey Graham*
TX John Cornyn
2003 3rd
Mary Jennings Hegar
John Cornyn*
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AK Lisa Murkowski
2002 4th
AL Richard Shelby
1987 6th
AR John Boozman
2011 2nd
AR Tom Cotton
2015 1st
Tom Cotton*
Ricky Harrington Jr
AZ Kyrsten Sinema
2019 1st
CA Kamala Harris
2017 1st
CA Dianne Feinstein
1992 6th
CO Michael Bennet
2009 3rd
CT Richard Blumenthal
2011 2nd
CT Chris Murphy
2013 2nd
DE Tom Carper
2001 4th
DE Chris Coons
2011 2nd
Chris Coons*
Lauren Witzke
FL Marco Rubio
2011 2nd
FL Rick Scott
2019 1st
HI Brian Schatz
2012 2nd
HI Mazie Hirono
2013 2nd
IA Chuck Grassley
1981 7th
ID Mike Crapo
1999 4th
ID Jim Risch
2009 2nd
Paulette Jordan
Jim Risch*
IL Tammy Duckworth
2017 1st
IL Dick Durbin
1997 4th
Dick Durbin*
Mark Curran Jr.
IN Todd Young
2017 1st
IN Mike Braun
2019 1st
KS Jerry Moran
2011 2nd
KY Rand Paul
2011 2nd
LA John Kennedy
2017 1st
LA Bill Cassidy
2015 1st
Adrian Perkins
Bill Cassidy*
MA Elizabeth Warren
2013 2nd
MA Edward Markey
2013 2nd
Edward Markey*
Kevin O'Connor
MD Chris Van Hollen
2017 1st
MD Ben Cardin
2007 3rd
ME Angus King
2013 2nd
MI Debbie Stabenow
2001 4th
MN Amy Klobuchar
2007 3rd
MO Roy Blunt
2011 2nd
MO Josh Hawley
2019 1st
MS Roger Wicker
2007 3rd
MT Jon Tester
2007 3rd
NC Richard Burr
2005 3rd
ND John Hoeven
2011 2nd
ND Kevin Cramer
2019 1st
NE Deb Fischer
2013 2nd
NE Ben Sasse
2015 1st
Chris Janicek
Ben Sasse*
NH Maggie Hassan
2017 1st
NJ Bob Menendez
2006 4th
NJ Cory Booker
2013 2nd
Cory Booker*
Rik Mehta
NM Martin Heinrich
2013 2nd
NV Catherine Masto
2017 1st
NV Jacky Rosen
2019 1st
NY Chuck Schumer
1999 4th
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
2009 3rd
OH Rob Portman
2011 2nd
OH Sherrod Brown
2007 3rd
OK James Lankford
2015 2nd
OK Jim Inhofe
1995 5th
Abby Broyles
Jim Inhofe*
OR Ron Wyden
1996 5th
OR Jeff Merkley
2009 2nd
Jeff Merkley*
Jo Rae Perkins
PA Patrick Toomey
2011 2nd
PA Bob Casey
2007 3rd
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
2007 3rd
RI Jack Reed
1997 4th
Jack Reed*
Allen Waters
SC Tim Scott
2013 2nd
SD John Thune
2005 3rd
SD Mike Rounds
2015 1st
Dan Ahlers
Mike Rounds*
TN Marsha Blackburn
2019 1st
TN Lamar Alexander
2003 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Marquita Bradshaw
Bill Hagerty
TX Ted Cruz
2013 2nd
UT Mike Lee
2011 2nd
UT Mitt Romney
2019 1st
VA Tim Kaine
2013 2nd
VA Mark Warner
2009 2nd
Mark Warner*
Daniel Gade
VT Patrick Leahy
1975 8th
VT Bernie Sanders
2007 3rd
WA Patty Murray
1993 5th
WA Maria Cantwell
2001 4th
WI Ron Johnson
2011 2nd
WI Tammy Baldwin
2013 2nd
WV Joe Manchin
2011 3rd
WV Shelley Capito
2015 1st
Paula Swearengin
Shelley Capito*
WY John Barrasso
2007 3rd
WY Mike Enzi
1997 4th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2020.
Merav Ben-David
Cynthia Lummis