2022 House Battle for Control
House simulator results
Each day, we run 25,000 simulations with the model. On this page, we display the most recent day’s results, along with some trends over time. This lets us see the full range of plausible 2022 House election outcomes.
Election Winner
Percentage of time each party wins control
| Nov 7 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 92.3% | |
| Democrats | 7.7% | |
Average Total Seats
The average outcome
| Nov 7 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | 230.4 | |
| Democrats | 204.6 | |
Results Distribution
All outcomes and frequency of occurrence
| Nov 7 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Republicans | ||
| Democrats | ||
Each bar displays the number of seats for the selected party, colored by the party in control at that number.
50 Most Competitive Districts - November 7
Based on closeness of split in winning percentage
| District | Democrats | Republicans | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota-2 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 1.0% |
| New Hampshire-1 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 1.0% |
| Washington-8 | 49.2% | 50.8% | 1.6% |
| Nevada-3 | 49.0% | 51.0% | 2.0% |
| Illinois-17 | 51.1% | 48.9% | 2.2% |
| Ohio-13 | 48.6% | 51.4% | 2.8% |
| Pennsylvania-8 | 53.6% | 46.4% | 7.2% |
| New York-19 | 55.1% | 44.9% | 10.2% |
| Michigan-7 | 55.5% | 44.5% | 11.0% |
| Oregon-5 | 43.7% | 56.3% | 12.6% |
| New York-18 | 56.7% | 43.3% | 13.4% |
| Ohio-9 | 56.8% | 43.2% | 13.6% |
| New York-22 | 57.6% | 42.4% | 15.2% |
| New York-3 | 57.8% | 42.2% | 15.6% |
| Rhode Island-2 | 42.1% | 57.9% | 15.8% |
| Virginia-2 | 42.1% | 57.9% | 15.8% |
| Maine-2 | 59.2% | 40.8% | 18.4% |
| Iowa-3 | 39.7% | 60.3% | 20.6% |
| North Carolina-13 | 38.7% | 61.3% | 22.6% |
| Ohio-1 | 38.5% | 61.5% | 23.0% |
| Pennsylvania-17 | 37.6% | 62.4% | 24.8% |
| Oregon-6 | 63.4% | 36.6% | 26.8% |
| Michigan-3 | 64.2% | 35.8% | 28.4% |
| Nevada-1 | 35.4% | 64.6% | 29.2% |
| Pennsylvania-7 | 35.4% | 64.6% | 29.2% |
| California-22 | 34.1% | 65.9% | 31.8% |
| Oregon-4 | 67.0% | 33.0% | 34.0% |
| Connecticut-5 | 67.3% | 32.7% | 34.6% |
| California-27 | 31.4% | 68.6% | 37.2% |
| Virginia-7 | 69.3% | 30.7% | 38.6% |
| Michigan-8 | 70.3% | 29.7% | 40.6% |
| California-13 | 71.2% | 28.8% | 42.4% |
| Colorado-8 | 28.5% | 71.5% | 43.0% |
| New Mexico-2 | 28.4% | 71.6% | 43.2% |
| North Carolina-1 | 73.3% | 26.7% | 46.6% |
| California-49 | 79.5% | 20.5% | 59.0% |
| Nevada-4 | 80.1% | 19.9% | 60.2% |
| Kansas-3 | 83.6% | 16.4% | 67.2% |
| Texas-28 | 83.9% | 16.1% | 67.8% |
| California-47 | 84.1% | 15.9% | 68.2% |
| New Jersey-7 | 14.8% | 85.2% | 70.4% |
| Arizona-4 | 85.3% | 14.7% | 70.6% |
| Colorado-7 | 85.8% | 14.2% | 71.6% |
| Illinois-13 | 86.0% | 14.0% | 72.0% |
| Maryland-6 | 86.9% | 13.1% | 73.8% |
| New Hampshire-2 | 87.0% | 13.0% | 74.0% |
| Florida-13 | 12.3% | 87.7% | 75.4% |
| Illinois-6 | 88.7% | 11.3% | 77.4% |
| New York-1 | 11.3% | 88.7% | 77.4% |
| Nebraska-2 | 9.6% | 90.4% | 80.8% |
