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UPCOMING

FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an interactive Senate map derived from the Deluxe version of the FiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast.

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (75%+), Safe (95%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own forecast for the 35 Senate elections in 2022.

Current

Democrats
Republicans
no 2022 election
no 2022 election
CT
MD
 
VP
S

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up  *

Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map:

Senate Elections 2022
Current 50 50
Consensus Forecast 48 50 2
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

Current 2022 2024 2026^
48 14 21 13
2 2
50 21 10 19

^ Excludes Oklahoma seat with a special election in 2022

The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Dan Sullivan
2015 2nd
AL Tommy Tuberville
2021 1st
AR Tom Cotton
2015 2nd
AZ Mark Kelly
2020 1st
Mark Kelly*
Blake Masters
AZ Kyrsten Sinema
2019 1st
CA Dianne Feinstein
1992 6th
CO Michael Bennet
2009 3rd
Michael Bennet*
Joe O'Dea
CO John Hickenlooper
2021 1st
CT Chris Murphy
2013 2nd
DE Tom Carper
2001 4th
DE Chris Coons
2011 3rd
FL Marco Rubio
2011 2nd
Val Demings
Marco Rubio*
FL Rick Scott
2019 1st
GA Raphael Warnock
2021 1st
Raphael Warnock*
Herschel Walker
GA Jon Ossoff
2021 1st
HI Mazie Hirono
2013 2nd
IA Chuck Grassley
1981 7th
Michael Franken
Chuck Grassley*
IA Joni Ernst
2015 2nd
ID Jim Risch
2009 3rd
IL Dick Durbin
1997 5th
IN Mike Braun
2019 1st
KS Roger Marshall
2021 1st
KY Mitch McConnell
1985 7th
LA Bill Cassidy
2015 2nd
MA Elizabeth Warren
2013 2nd
MA Ed Markey
2013 3rd
MD Ben Cardin
2007 3rd
ME Angus King
2013 2nd
ME Susan Collins
1997 5th
MI Debbie Stabenow
2001 4th
MI Gary Peters
2015 2nd
MN Amy Klobuchar
2007 3rd
MN Tina Smith
2018 2nd
MO Josh Hawley
2019 1st
MS Roger Wicker
2007 3rd
MS Cindy Hyde-Smith
2018 2nd
MT Jon Tester
2007 3rd
MT Steve Daines
2015 2nd
NC Richard Burr
2005 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Cheri Lynn Beasley
Ted Budd
NC Thom Tillis
2015 2nd
ND Kevin Cramer
2019 1st
NE Deb Fischer
2013 2nd
NE Ben Sasse
2015 2nd
NH Maggie Hassan
2017 1st
Maggie Hassan*
Don Bolduc
NH Jeanne Shaheen
2009 3rd
NJ Bob Menendez
2006 4th
NJ Cory Booker
2013 3rd
NM Martin Heinrich
2013 2nd
NM Ben Ray Lujan
2021 1st
NV Catherine Cortez Masto
2017 1st
Catherine Cortez Masto*
Adam Laxalt
NV Jacky Rosen
2019 1st
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
2009 3rd
OH Rob Portman
2011 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Tim Ryan
J.D. Vance
OH Sherrod Brown
2007 3rd
OR Jeff Merkley
2009 3rd
PA Patrick Toomey
2011 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
John Fetterman
Mehmet Oz
PA Bob Casey
2007 3rd
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
2007 3rd
RI Jack Reed
1997 5th
SC Lindsey Graham
2003 4th
SD Mike Rounds
2015 2nd
TN Marsha Blackburn
2019 1st
TN Bill Hagerty
2021 1st
TX Ted Cruz
2013 2nd
TX John Cornyn
2003 4th
UT Mike Lee
2011 2nd
Mike Lee*
Evan McMullin
UT Mitt Romney
2019 1st
VA Tim Kaine
2013 2nd
VA Mark Warner
2009 3rd
VT Bernie Sanders
2007 3rd
WA Patty Murray
1993 5th
Patty Murray*
Tiffany Smiley
WA Maria Cantwell
2001 4th
WI Ron Johnson
2011 2nd
Mandela Barnes
Ron Johnson*
WI Tammy Baldwin
2013 2nd
WV Joe Manchin
2011 3rd
WV Shelley Capito
2015 2nd
WY John Barrasso
2007 3rd
WY Cynthia Lummis
2021 1st
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
AK Lisa Murkowski
2002 4th
Patricia Chesbro
Buzz Kelley
Lisa Murkowski*
Kelly Tshibaka
AL Richard Shelby
1987 6th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Will Boyd
Katie Britt
AR John Boozman
2011 2nd
Natalie James
John Boozman*
CA Alex Padilla
2021 1st
Alex Padilla*
Mark Meuser
CT Richard Blumenthal
2011 2nd
Richard Blumenthal*
Leora Levy
HI Brian Schatz
2012 2nd
Brian Schatz*
Bob McDermott
ID Mike Crapo
1999 4th
David Roth
Mike Crapo*
IL Tammy Duckworth
2017 1st
Tammy Duckworth*
Kathy Salvi
IN Todd Young
2017 1st
Thomas McDermott
Todd Young*
KS Jerry Moran
2011 2nd
Mark Holland
Jerry Moran*
KY Rand Paul
2011 2nd
Charles Booker
Rand Paul*
LA John Kennedy
2017 1st
Gary Chambers
Luke Mixon
Syrita Steib
John Kennedy*
MD Chris Van Hollen
2017 1st
Chris Van Hollen*
Chris Chaffee
MO Roy Blunt
2011 2nd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Trudy Valentine
Eric Schmitt
ND John Hoeven
2011 2nd
Katrina Christiansen
John Hoeven*
NY Chuck Schumer
1999 4th
Chuck Schumer*
Joe Pinion
OK James Lankford
2015 2nd
Madison Horn
James Lankford*
OK Jim Inhofe
1995 6th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Kendra Horn
Markwayne Mullin
OR Ron Wyden
1996 5th
Ron Wyden*
Jo Rae Perkins
SC Tim Scott
2013 2nd
Krystle Matthews
Tim Scott*
SD John Thune
2005 3rd
Brian Bengs
John Thune*
VT Patrick Leahy
1975 8th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2022.
Peter Welch
Gerald Malloy