2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination
1,976 Pledged Delegates Needed to Win on 1st Ballot
The Democratic Party will nominate a 2024 presidential candidate at its convention in Chicago the week of August 19, 2024.
Estimated Delegates Earned
Biden
3,886
Uncommitted
36
Phillips
4
Palmer
3
Delegate counts will be available beginning with the South Carolina Primary on February 3, 2024. There are 3,949 pledged delegates; it will take 50% + 1 of these (1,976 or more) to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot. An additional 749 automatic delegates (more commonly called superdelegates) will not participate on the first ballot (unless the nomination is uncontested). This approach was first used in 2020.
Visit the Democratic Delegate Tracker for a breakdown of delegates earned by candidate and state.
The map below shows the estimated total number of delegates each state or territory will send to the Democratic convention. Select a state on the map for more details about its primary or caucus. Each linked page will also include any available polling, along with results information as the event takes place.
| Early | Super Tuesday March 5 | Other March | April | May | June |
| 208 | 1,420 | 1,004 | 722 | 365 | 230 |
Democratic contests allocate pledged delegates proportionately to candidates receiving at least 15% of the popular vote. In most locations, some delegates are awarded on the statewide vote, while others are jurisdictional (usually by congressional district).
The 15% threshold is calculated separately at each division. That means, for example, a candidate getting less than 15% statewide but more than 15% in a congressional district may still win one or more delegates. Special thanks to The Greenpapers and FHQ for making it a lot easier to aggregate the data. Visit those sites for the finer details of the state-by-state allocation rules.
National Polls
The results of national polling for a preferred Democratic nominee is shown below. While these national polls are directionally interesting, the nominee will ultimately be chosen based on delegates earned during state-by-state primary and caucus votes.
| Source | Date | Sample | Biden | Williamson | Phillips | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll Averages† | 74.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | - | |||
| Emerson College | 3/07/2024 | 540 RV | 78% | 3% | 4% | 15% | |
| TIPP Insights | 3/04/2024 | 603 RV ±4% | 76% | - | 9% | 15% | |
| NY Times / Siena College | 3/02/2024 | 224 RV | 77% | - | 12% | 11% | |
| Marquette Law School | 2/22/2024 | 356 RV ±6.8% | 66% | 6% | 2% | 26% | |
| Quinnipiac | 2/21/2024 | 624 RV ±3.9% | 80% | - | 15% | 5% | |
| Echelon Insights | 2/16/2024 | 484 LV | 78% | - | 8% | 14% | |
| Emerson College | 2/16/2024 | 489 RV | 74% | - | 9% | 17% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2/01/2024 | 425 LV | 67% | 9% | 2% | 22% | |
| Quinnipiac | 1/31/2024 | 693 RV ±3.7% | 78% | 11% | 6% | 5% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 1/30/2024 | 475 RV | 74% | 4% | 3% | 19% | |
| Emerson College | 1/30/2024 | 472 RV | 72% | 4% | 4% | 20% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 1/19/2024 | 614 LV | 77% | 2% | 3% | 18% | |
| TIPP Insights | 1/11/2024 | 597 RV ±4.1% | 69% | 5% | 4% | 22% | |
| Suffolk University | 1/02/2024 | 278 LV | 74% | 9% | 2% | 15% | |
| Echelon Insights | 12/22/2023 | 449 LV | 65% | 8% | 2% | 25% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 12/21/2023 | 446 LV | 69% | 6% | 5% | 20% | |
| Quinnipiac | 12/20/2023 | 683 RV ±3.8% | 75% | 13% | 5% | 7% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 12/19/2023 | 458 RV | 68% | 4% | 3% | 25% | |
| Emerson College | 12/08/2023 | 402 RV | 63% | 5% | 2% | 30% | |
| Echelon Insights | 11/22/2023 | 484 LV | 67% | 6% | 5% | 22% | |
| Emerson College | 11/22/2023 | 599 RV | 66% | 5% | 2% | 27% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 11/21/2023 | 440 LV | 66% | 9% | 3% | 22% | |
| NBC News | 11/19/2023 | 311 RV ±5.6% | 77% | 12% | 4% | 7% | |
| Fox News | 11/15/2023 | 386 RV ±5% | 72% | 13% | 3% | 12% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 11/15/2023 | 461 RV | 64% | 4% | 4% | 28% | |
| Quinnipiac | 11/15/2023 | 666 RV ±3.8% | 74% | 12% | 4% | 10% | |
| CNN | 11/07/2023 | 562 RV | 71% | 8% | 11% | 10% | |
| Echelon Insights | 11/01/2023 | 472 LV | 59% | 7% | 1% | 33% | |
| Quinnipiac | 11/01/2023 | 695 RV ±3.7% | 77% | 8% | 6% | 9% | |
| Suffolk University | 10/23/2023 | 289 RV | 73% | 11% | - | 16% | |
| Emerson College | 10/20/2023 | 643 RV | 70% | 10% | - | 20% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 10/19/2023 | 509 RV | 68% | 6% | - | 26% | |
| Marquette Law School | 10/04/2023 | 361 RV ±6.3% | 53% | 3% | - | 44% | |
| Echelon Insights | 10/02/2023 | 499 LV | 58% | 4% | - | 38% | |
| Emerson College | 9/20/2023 | 457 RV | 62% | 4% | - | 34% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 9/19/2023 | 486 RV | 68% | 4% | - | 28% | |
| Fox News | 9/14/2023 | 404 RV ±5% | 71% | 6% | - | 23% | |
| Quinnipiac | 9/13/2023 | 724 RV ±3.6% | 73% | 8% | - | 19% | |
| TIPP Insights | 9/11/2023 | 606 RV ±4% | 68% | 5% | - | 27% | |
| Redfield & Wilton | 9/08/2023 | 541 LV | 71% | 3% | - | 26% | |
| Echelon Insights | 9/06/2023 | 521 LV | 57% | 6% | - | 37% | |
| Emerson College | 8/28/2023 | 374 LV | 61% | 4% | - | 35% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 8/22/2023 | 495 RV | 69% | 5% | - | 26% | |
| Emerson College | 8/19/2023 | 392 LV | 69% | 4% | - | 27% | |
| Fox News | 8/16/2023 | 399 RV ±5% | 64% | 9% | - | 27% | |
| Quinnipiac | 8/16/2023 | 666 RV ±3.8% | 72% | 9% | - | 19% | |
| TIPP Insights | 8/14/2023 | 615 RV ±4% | 63% | 4% | - | 33% | |
| Echelon Insights | 8/01/2023 | 500 LV | 62% | 5% | - | 33% | |
| NY Times / Siena College | 8/01/2023 | 478 RV | 64% | 10% | - | 26% | |
| Marquette Law School | 7/27/2023 | 350 RV ±6.7% | 54% | 6% | - | 40% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 7/19/2023 | 494 RV | 69% | 5% | - | 26% | |
| Quinnipiac | 7/19/2023 | 763 RV ±3.6% | 71% | 7% | - | 22% | |
| TIPP Insights | 7/17/2023 | 616 RV ±4% | 60% | 5% | - | 35% | |
| Echelon Insights | 7/05/2023 | 511 LV | 65% | 4% | - | 31% | |
| Fox News | 6/28/2023 | 394 RV ±5% | 64% | 10% | - | 26% | |
| Emerson College | 6/22/2023 | 441 LV | 73% | 3% | - | 24% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 6/22/2023 | 485 RV | 67% | 4% | - | 29% | |
| Quinnipiac | 6/14/2023 | 722 RV ±3.7% | 70% | 8% | - | 22% | |
| TIPP Insights | 6/12/2023 | 638 RV ±4% | 68% | 4% | - | 28% | |
| Suffolk University | 6/12/2023 | 293 LV | 58% | 6% | - | 36% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 6/01/2023 | 467 RV | 62% | 5% | - | 33% | |
| Echelon Insights | 5/26/2023 | 538 LV | 60% | 5% | - | 35% | |
| CNN | 5/25/2023 | 432 RV | 60% | 8% | - | 32% | |
| Marquette Law School | 5/24/2023 | 344 RV ±6.3% | 53% | 7% | - | 40% | |
| Fox News | 5/24/2023 | 390 RV ±5% | 62% | 8% | - | 30% | |
| Yahoo / YouGov | 5/10/2023 | 480 RV | 57% | 6% | - | 37% | |
| Echelon Insights | 4/28/2023 | 513 LV | 66% | 2% | - | 32% | |
| Emerson College | 4/27/2023 | 448 LV | 70% | 8% | - | 22% | |
| Fox News | 4/24/2023 | 392 RV ±5% | 62% | 9% | - | 29% | |
| Morning Consult | 4/11/2023 | 827 LV ±3% | 70% | 4% | - | 26% | |
†The average includes the most recent poll from each source released within two weeks of the November 5 election. If there are fewer than five, the window is expanded to 30 days or five polls from the date of the most recent poll, whichever comes first. In the latter scenario, if there are multiple qualifying polls on the same calendar date as the oldest poll used, those will also be included.
