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2024 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast

As of November 4, 2024

The U.S. Senate has 51 Democrats (including four independents) and 49 Republicans. There are 34 seats up in 2024 - including a special election in Nebraska - of which 23 are held by Democrats or Independents. Republicans can retake control with a net gain of two seats or by winning the 2024 presidential election along with a net gain of one seat.

This map is a composite of ratings by several forecasters. Only seats rated safe by all are shown as 'safe' for the incumbent party.

November 4: New Mexico Safe to Likely Democrat

Democrats
Republicans
no 2024 election
no 2024 election
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
 
VP
S

Map :

- +
Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P

Independent ratings for ME, NE, and VT only

Count Independent as
ME
NE
VT

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Senate Elections 2024
Current 51
47 4
0 49
Consensus Forecast 48
46 2
0 51 1
Interactive Map Above

Upcoming Elections

Current 2024 2026^ 2028
47 19 13 15
4 4
49 11 19 19

^ Excludes Nebraska seat with a special election in 2024

The arrows on the counter above the map designate the controlling party. 50-50 tie decided by Vice-President (VP)

State Incumbent Party Since Term Consensus
AK Lisa Murkowski
2002 5th
AK Dan Sullivan
2015 2nd
AL Katie Britt
2023 1st
AL Tommy Tuberville
2021 1st
AR John Boozman
2011 3rd
AR Tom Cotton
2015 2nd
AZ Mark Kelly
2020 2nd
AZ Kyrsten Sinema
2019 1st
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Ruben Gallego
Kari Lake
CA Alex Padilla
2021 2nd
CO Michael Bennet
2009 4th
CO John Hickenlooper
2021 1st
CT Richard Blumenthal
2011 3rd
DE Chris Coons
2011 3rd
FL Marco Rubio
2011 3rd
FL Rick Scott
2019 1st
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Rick Scott*
GA Raphael Warnock
2021 2nd
GA Jon Ossoff
2021 1st
HI Brian Schatz
2012 3rd
IA Chuck Grassley
1981 8th
IA Joni Ernst
2015 2nd
ID Mike Crapo
1999 5th
ID Jim Risch
2009 3rd
IL Tammy Duckworth
2017 2nd
IL Dick Durbin
1997 5th
IN Todd Young
2017 2nd
KS Jerry Moran
2011 3rd
KS Roger Marshall
2021 1st
KY Rand Paul
2011 3rd
KY Mitch McConnell
1985 7th
LA John Kennedy
2017 2nd
LA Bill Cassidy
2015 2nd
MA Ed Markey
2013 3rd
MD Chris Van Hollen
2017 2nd
MD Ben Cardin
2007 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Angela Alsobrooks
Larry Hogan
ME Susan Collins
1997 5th
MI Debbie Stabenow
2001 4th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Elissa Slotkin
Mike Rogers
MI Gary Peters
2015 2nd
MN Tina Smith
2018 2nd
MO Eric Schmitt
2023 1st
MS Cindy Hyde-Smith
2018 2nd
MT Jon Tester
2007 3rd
Jon Tester*
Tim Sheehy
MT Steve Daines
2015 2nd
NC Ted Budd
2023 1st
NC Thom Tillis
2015 2nd
ND John Hoeven
2011 3rd
NE Deb Fischer
2013 2nd
Deb Fischer*
Dan Osborn
NH Maggie Hassan
2017 2nd
NH Jeanne Shaheen
2009 3rd
NJ Cory Booker
2013 3rd
NM Martin Heinrich
2013 2nd
Martin Heinrich*
Nella Domenici
NM Ben Ray Lujan
2021 1st
NV Catherine Cortez Masto
2017 2nd
NV Jacky Rosen
2019 1st
Jacky Rosen*
Sam Brown
NY Chuck Schumer
1999 5th
OH J.D. Vance
2023 1st
OH Sherrod Brown
2007 3rd
Sherrod Brown*
Bernie Moreno
OK James Lankford
2015 3rd
OK Markwayne Mullin
2023 1st
OR Ron Wyden
1996 6th
OR Jeff Merkley
2009 3rd
PA John Fetterman
2023 1st
PA Bob Casey
2007 3rd
Bob Casey*
David McCormick
RI Jack Reed
1997 5th
SC Tim Scott
2013 3rd
SC Lindsey Graham
2003 4th
SD John Thune
2005 4th
SD Mike Rounds
2015 2nd
TN Bill Hagerty
2021 1st
TX Ted Cruz
2013 2nd
Colin Allred
Ted Cruz*
TX John Cornyn
2003 4th
UT Mike Lee
2011 3rd
VA Mark Warner
2009 3rd
VT Peter Welch
2023 1st
WA Patty Murray
1993 6th
WI Ron Johnson
2011 3rd
WI Tammy Baldwin
2013 2nd
Tammy Baldwin*
Eric Hovde
WV Joe Manchin
2011 3rd
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Glenn Elliott
Jim Justice
WV Shelley Capito
2015 2nd
WY Cynthia Lummis
2021 1st
The following races are rated as safe for the incumbent party.
CA Laphonza Butler
2023 1st
Not running for a full term
Adam Schiff
Steve Garvey
CT Chris Murphy
2013 2nd
Chris Murphy*
Matt Corey
DE Tom Carper
2001 4th
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Lisa Blunt Rochester
Eric Hansen
HI Mazie Hirono
2013 2nd
Mazie Hirono*
Bob McDermott
IN Mike Braun
2019 1st
Retiring to run for governor
Valerie McCray
Jim Banks
MA Elizabeth Warren
2013 2nd
Elizabeth Warren*
John Deaton
ME Angus King
2013 2nd
David Costello
Demi Kouzounas
Angus King*
MN Amy Klobuchar
2007 3rd
Amy Klobuchar*
Royce White
MO Josh Hawley
2019 1st
Lucas Kunce
Josh Hawley*
MS Roger Wicker
2007 3rd
Ty Pinkins
Roger Wicker*
ND Kevin Cramer
2019 1st
Katrina Christiansen
Kevin Cramer*
NE Pete Ricketts
2023 1st
Preston Love
Pete Ricketts*
NJ George Helmy
2024 1st
Helmy was appointed to replace Bob Menendez, who resigned Aug. 20
Andy Kim
Curtis Bashaw
NY Kirsten Gillibrand
2009 3rd
Kirsten Gillibrand*
Mike Sapraicone
RI Sheldon Whitehouse
2007 3rd
Sheldon Whitehouse*
Patricia Morgan
TN Marsha Blackburn
2019 1st
Gloria Johnson
Marsha Blackburn*
UT Mitt Romney
2019 1st
Incumbent not running for re-election in 2024.
Caroline Gleich
John Curtis
VA Tim Kaine
2013 2nd
Tim Kaine*
Hung Cao
VT Bernie Sanders
2007 3rd
Gerald Malloy
Bernie Sanders*
WA Maria Cantwell
2001 4th
Maria Cantwell*
Raul Garcia
WY John Barrasso
2007 3rd
Scott Morrow
John Barrasso*