Competitive 2024 House Elections

Winning margin of <10%

The 68 districts shown as undecided were decided by a margin of less than 10% in the 2024 U.S. House of Representatives elections.

This will serve as a proxy for competitive 2026 elections until forecasts become available later in 2025.

The map is interactive; use it as a starting point to create and share your own 2026 House forecast.

no 2026 election
no 2026 election

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House Elections 2026

Current 215 219 1 *
Interactive Map Above

* Vacant Seat(s)

District Incumbent Party Since Term Predictions Margin of Victory
Map House(a) President(b)
AK- AL Nick Begich
2025 1st
2.4% y N/A
AL- 2 Shomari Figures
2025 1st
9.2% N/A
AZ- 1 David Schweikert
2011 8th
3.8% N/A
AZ- 2 Eli Crane
2023 2nd
9.0% N/A
AZ- 4 Greg Stanton
2019 4th
7.3% N/A
AZ- 6 Juan Ciscomani
2023 2nd
2.5% N/A
CA- 9 Josh Harder
2019 4th
3.6% N/A
CA- 13 Adam Gray
2025 1st
0.1% N/A
CA- 21 Jim Costa
2013 7th
5.1% N/A
CA- 22 David Valadao
2021 3rd
6.8% N/A
CA- 27 George Whitesides
2025 1st
2.7% N/A
CA- 41 Ken Calvert
1993 17th
3.4% N/A
CA- 45 Derek Tran
2025 1st
0.2% N/A
CA- 47 Dave Min
2025 1st
2.9% N/A
CA- 49 Mike Levin
2019 4th
4.3% N/A
CO- 3 Jeff Hurd
2025 1st
5.0% N/A
CO- 8 Gabe Evans
2025 1st
0.7% N/A
CT- 5 Jahana Hayes
2019 4th
6.8% N/A
FL- 13 Anna Luna
2023 2nd
9.6% N/A
FL- 22 Lois Frankel
2013 7th
9.9% N/A
FL- 23 Jared Moskowitz
2023 2nd
4.9% N/A
FL- 25 Debbie Wasserman Schultz
2005 11th
9.0% N/A
IA- 1 Mariannette Miller-Meeks
2021 3rd
0.2% N/A
IA- 3 Zach Nunn
2023 2nd
3.8% N/A
IL- 6 Sean Casten
2019 4th
8.4% N/A
IL- 17 Eric Sorensen
2023 2nd
8.9% N/A
IN- 1 Frank Mrvan
2021 3rd
8.5% N/A
MD- 6 April McClain-Delaney
2025 1st
6.3% N/A
ME- 2 Jared Golden
2019 4th
0.7% y N/A
MI- 3 Hillary Scholten
2023 2nd
9.9% N/A
MI- 7 Tom Barrett
2025 1st
3.7% N/A
MI- 8 Kristen McDonald Rivet
2025 1st
6.6% N/A
MI- 10 John James
2023 2nd
6.1% N/A
MT- 1 Ryan Zinke
2023 2nd
7.7% N/A
NC- 1 Don Davis
2023 2nd
1.7% N/A
NE- 2 Don Bacon
2017 5th
1.9% N/A
NH- 1 Chris Pappas
2019 4th
8.1% N/A
NH- 2 Maggie Goodlander
2025 1st
6.0% N/A
NJ- 3 Herb Conaway
2025 1st
8.6% N/A
NJ- 7 Tom Kean
2023 2nd
5.4% N/A
NJ- 9 Nellie Pou
2025 1st
4.9% N/A
NM- 2 Gabriel Vasquez
2023 2nd
4.2% N/A
NV- 1 Dina Titus
2013 7th
7.5% N/A
NV- 3 Susie Lee
2019 4th
2.7% N/A
NV- 4 Steven Horsford
2019 4th
8.1% N/A
NY- 3 Tom Suozzi
2024 2nd
3.6% N/A
NY- 4 Laura Gillen
2025 1st
2.3% N/A
NY- 17 Michael Lawler
2023 2nd
6.3% N/A
NY- 19 Josh Riley
2025 1st
2.2% N/A
NY- 22 John Mannion
2025 1st
9.1% N/A
OH- 1 Greg Landsman
2023 2nd
9.2% N/A
OH- 9 Marcy Kaptur
1983 22nd
0.6% N/A
OH- 13 Emilia Sykes
2023 2nd
2.2% N/A
OR- 4 Val Hoyle
2023 2nd
7.8% N/A
OR- 5 Janelle Bynum
2025 1st
2.7% N/A
OR- 6 Andrea Salinas
2023 2nd
6.9% N/A
PA- 7 Ryan Mackenzie
2025 1st
1.0% N/A
PA- 8 Rob Bresnahan
2025 1st
1.6% N/A
PA- 10 Scott Perry
2013 7th
1.3% N/A
PA- 17 Chris Deluzio
2023 2nd
7.8% N/A
TX- 28 Henry Cuellar
2005 11th
5.6% N/A
TX- 34 Vicente Gonzalez
2017 5th
2.6% N/A
VA- 2 Jen Kiggans
2023 2nd
3.8% N/A
VA- 7 Eugene Vindman
2025 1st
2.6% N/A
VA- 10 Suhas Subramanyam
2025 1st
4.5% N/A
WA- 3 Marie Perez
2023 2nd
3.9% N/A
WA- 8 Kim Schrier
2019 4th
8.2% N/A
WI- 3 Derrick Van Orden
2023 2nd
2.7% N/A

(a) Source: 270toWin research.
Aside from these exceptions, the margin is the difference between the Democratic and Republican nominee in the 2024 general election.
Exception types: * Uncontested | + No major party opposition | ^ Both nominees from same party | x All-party primary | y Ranked choice tabulation

(b) Source: Daily Kos. The margin is the difference between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, based on congressional district boundaries in use for the 2026 election.