Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
VT |
|
NH |
|
MA |
|
RI |
|
CT |
|
NJ |
|
DE |
|
MD |
|
DC |
Map :
Headlines
Live Results: South Carolina State House District 113 Special Primary
Three Democrats are vying to replace former Rep. Marvin Pendarvis, who resigned this past September.
Minnesota State Senate Special Primary: Overview and Live Results
The primary takes place with a number of controversies affecting the Legislature as it begins a new session
Overview and Live Results: Virginia General Assembly Special Elections
The 2025 calendar kicks off with elections to fill three vacancies. Upsets could upend the balance of power in the General Assembly
Introducing the 2026 Senate Interactive Map
22 Republicans and 13 Democrats will be up in 2026; this includes special elections in Florida and Ohio.
Introducing the 2026 House Interactive Map
Republicans start the 119th congress with a very narrow 219-215 partisan edge.
Customize your map by changing one or more states. Return here to share it. Share or Embed your Map: Select 'Share Map' button above. Share or Embed your Map: