Princeton Election Consortium
Map if Trump Outperforms Polls by 3%
Part of the Princeton Election Consortium (PEC) polling-derived forecast series for the likelihood of a Biden or Trump victory in each state. This particular map is based on Trump outperforming the polls by 3%. That is the amount by which polls and results differed in 2016 in terms of PEC's Meta-Margin tracker.
You can view the full series of three maps here.
A state is shown as toss-up where the probability is 60% or less. The colored gradients get progressively deeper as the probability increases: Leans (<80%), Likely (<95%), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2020 presidential election forecast.
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