538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election
Current as of Map Timestamp
This is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538. It is current as of the map timestamp.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Rep. Byron Donalds Running for Florida Governor in 2026
He'll look to succeed fellow Republican Ron DeSantis, who is ineligible to run due to term limit laws
Overview and Live Results: February 25 Legislative Special Elections
Voters in Connecticut and Maine will fill vacancies, while the California contests may require a top-two election in April
Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell to Retire at End of Term
Currently second in seniority to Chuck Grassley, the 83 year old Republican will not seek an 8th term
Overview and Live Results: Delaware and Louisiana Legislative Special Elections
Two vacancies in the Senate of each state will be filled Saturday
Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
She becomes the second Democratic Senator to retire this cycle
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