538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (98%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
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Vance Says He’ll Be Upset If Trump Doesn’t Pick Him
Trump Pulls Ahead in National Polls
The Old-School Politician in a New-School Era
Donald Trump Has Only One Debate Mode
Presidential Race Remains Tight in Wisconsin
Headlines
Republican Michael Rulli, Winner of Ohio Special Election, Sworn in to Congress
The GOP partisan advantage expanded to 219-213 with Tuesday's ceremony; the party also won a special election in Colorado
Overview and Live Results: Colorado, New York, Utah Primaries; South Carolina Runoffs
Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) may become the first Democratic U.S. House incumbent ousted in a primary this year
Update: Virginia Congressional District 5 Republican Primary
Having alienated both Donald Trump and supporters of Kevin McCarthy, Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good is at risk of losing his seat
Overview and Live Results: Oklahoma and Virginia Primaries; Georgia Runoffs
Having alienated much of the GOP, Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) is at risk of becoming one of the first incumbents to lose a primary this year
Live Results: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina Primaries
There is also a special election for a congressional vacancy in Ohio
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