538 Forecast: 2024 Presidential Election

Current as of Map Timestamp

Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the 2024 Election Forecast from 538

The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Biden or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (98%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

no 2024 election
no 2024 election
VT
NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC

Map :

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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
State District
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ME
NE

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Vance Says He’ll Be Upset If Trump Doesn’t Pick Him

Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) “has long been considered one of Donald Trump’s top running...

Trump Pulls Ahead in National Polls

A new Quinnipiac poll finds Donald Trump leads with 43% support, Joe Biden receives...

The Old-School Politician in a New-School Era

New York Times: “After more than half a century in Washington, he still has...

Donald Trump Has Only One Debate Mode

Time: “It’s been more than eight years since Trump first set foot on a debate...

Presidential Race Remains Tight in Wisconsin

A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds Joe Biden and Donald Trump are...

Headlines

Republican Michael Rulli, Winner of Ohio Special Election, Sworn in to Congress

June 26, 2024

The GOP partisan advantage expanded to 219-213 with Tuesday's ceremony; the party also won a special election in Colorado

Overview and Live Results: Colorado, New York, Utah Primaries; South Carolina Runoffs

June 25, 2024

Jamaal Bowman (NY-16) may become the first Democratic U.S. House incumbent ousted in a primary this year

Update: Virginia Congressional District 5 Republican Primary

June 21, 2024

Having alienated both Donald Trump and supporters of Kevin McCarthy, Freedom Caucus Chair Bob Good is at risk of losing his seat

Overview and Live Results: Oklahoma and Virginia Primaries; Georgia Runoffs

June 18, 2024

Having alienated much of the GOP, Rep. Bob Good (VA-05) is at risk of becoming one of the first incumbents to lose a primary this year

Live Results: Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina Primaries

June 10, 2024

There is also a special election for a congressional vacancy in Ohio