2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
This map tracks a Biden-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. Where polling is not yet available, the 2020 election margin, rounded to the nearest 1%, is used.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
This final update for this map was July 21, the day President Biden withdrew from the race.
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Headlines
Minnesota Sen. Tina Smith Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
She becomes the second Democratic Senator to retire this cycle
Cook Political Report Releases Initial 2026 House Ratings
The midterm election is shaping up to be another closely-contested battle for control of the chamber
Overview and Live Results: Florida Special Congressional Primaries
The Republican nominees that emerge will be heavily favored in special elections to be held on April 1
Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters Won't Seek Reelection in 2026
He is completing his second term. He chaired the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the past two cycles
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