2024 Electoral Map Based on Polls
Current as of Map Timestamp
This map tracks a Harris-Trump electoral vote count for the 2024 presidential election based entirely on polls. In most cases where polling is not yet available or not recent, the margin associated with Biden-Trump polls, prior to the president's withdrawal is used. If that polling is also insufficient, recent history is considered.
The map automatically updates three times daily.
States where the margin is <5% are shown as Toss-up. Leaning is <10%, Likely <15%. Safe is 15% or higher.
The map is interactive. Use it to create and share your 2024 presidential election forecast.
Keep in mind that polls are a snapshot in time, reflecting public opinion when they are conducted. As such, they may be of limited predictive value until the election gets much closer.
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Map :
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Headlines
Overview and Live Results: Massachusetts Primary
Outside two GOP congressional primaries, there's not all that much to see in this Democratic stronghold
Live Results: Oklahoma Legislative Runoffs, Tulsa Mayoral Election
Top two runoffs are required in 10 state legislative districts where no candidate received a majority in the June 18 primary
538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election
The forecast starts with a small lead for Harris, but the site notes a wide range of outcomes are ultimately possible
Overview and Live Results: Florida, Alaska, and Wyoming primaries
Just a handful of 2024 primaries will remain after Tuesday's contests
Live Results: Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin Primaries
The primary calendar is winding down, with fewer than 10 states remaining after Tuesday
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