JHK Forecasts: 2024 Presidential Election
Current as of Map Timestamp
Updated daily, this is an electoral map projection based on JHK Forecasts presidential election forecast. This data-driven model was created by Jack Kersting.
Outputs from the model drive much of the 270toWin 2024 election simulator.
The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (85%+), Dark (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
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Headlines
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
In her announcement video, Reynolds cited a desire to spend more time with her family
Overview and Live Results: St. Louis Mayoral Election
Mayor Tishaura Jones is fighting an uphill battle to win a second term in this rematch from the 2021 election
House Updates: James Running for MI Gov.; Abbott Calls TX Special Election
The Michigan Republican looks to succeed Whitmer, while the special election will (eventually) fill a House vacancy
House Updates: Patronis, Fine Seated After Wins; Pappas to Seek NH Senate Seat
The narrow GOP advantage expands to 220-213 as the newest members are quickly sworn in after their special election victories
Overview and Live Results: Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
One of the more consequential races of 2025 will decide the ideological balance of the court
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