Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets
Current as of Map Timestamp
This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.
Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases: Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.
For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Polymarket website.
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Headlines
Cook Political Report Releases Initial 2026 House Ratings
The midterm election is shaping up to be another closely-contested battle for control of the chamber
Overview and Live Results: Florida Special Congressional Primaries
The Republican nominees that emerge will be heavily favored in special elections to be held on April 1
Michigan Democratic Sen. Gary Peters Won't Seek Reelection in 2026
He is completing his second term. He chaired the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in the past two cycles
Cook Political Report Introduces 2026 Governor Ratings
36 states will hold elections next year; the forecaster sees five toss-ups with their initial ratings
Live Results: South Carolina State House District 113 Special Primary
Three Democrats are vying to replace former Rep. Marvin Pendarvis, who resigned this past September.
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