Polymarket 2024 Presidential Election Markets

Current as of Map Timestamp

This is an electoral map based on the Polymarket prediction market odds for the 2024 presidential election. It will be updated every four hours.

Unless there is an exact tie, the toss-up color is not used in this map. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the market likelihood of winning increases:  Tilt (<60%), Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (90%+).

Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.

The final update for this map on 270toWin will be the evening prior to Election Day.

For real-time market pricing, which will change frequently as results come in, see this map at the Polymarket website.

Current

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VT
NH
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Safe Likely Leans Tilt Toss-up 3P
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Headlines

Republicans Flip Alaska Congressional District; Two California Districts Remain Uncalled

November 16, 2024

The final tally will be close to where we started - Republicans held a 221-214 edge heading into the election.

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 14

November 14, 2024

Four U.S. House and one U.S. Senate seat remain uncalled by Decision Desk HQ, which provides results to 270toWin

Republicans Retain House Majority

November 11, 2024

The reelection of Juan Ciscomani (AZ-06) gives the GOP 218 seats

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 10

November 10, 2024

One Senate seat remains undecided, along with ten House seats. Control of the House remains undetermined

Uncalled Congressional Races as of November 8

November 8, 2024

Republicans need to win just two of the 15 uncalled elections to retain the majority in the House.