Split Ticket 2024 President Ratings
As of November 4, 2024
The final Split Ticket ratings for the 2024 presidential election. Use this map to create and share your own forecast.
The Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Leans (60%+), Likely (80%+), Safe (95%+).
Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2024 presidential election forecast.
November 4: Toss-ups removed. Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina to Tilts Republican; Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to Tilts Democrat. Colorado Safe to Likely Democrat. Read the analysis >
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Headlines
Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds Not Seeking Reelection in 2026
In her announcement video, Reynolds cited a desire to spend more time with her family
Overview and Live Results: St. Louis Mayoral Election
Mayor Tishaura Jones is fighting an uphill battle to win a second term in this rematch from the 2021 election
House Updates: James Running for MI Gov.; Abbott Calls TX Special Election
The Michigan Republican looks to succeed Whitmer, while the special election will (eventually) fill a House vacancy
House Updates: Patronis, Fine Seated After Wins; Pappas to Seek NH Senate Seat
The narrow GOP advantage expands to 220-213 as the newest members are quickly sworn in after their special election victories
Overview and Live Results: Wisconsin Supreme Court Election
One of the more consequential races of 2025 will decide the ideological balance of the court
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