The Simulator Returns for 2016

The 270toWin simulator has returned for 2016, currently featuring the most likely November match-up: Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump. The tool populates an electoral map in about 15 seconds, based on a probability set for each state.

The probabilities will be determined by polling, particularly as that becomes more frequent. For now, a combination of polling, 2012 actual and pundit projections are considered.

New for 2016: The 2016 simulator is no longer coded in Flash, so it will work on your mobile device. Results can now split Maine and Nebraska, as there is at least some possibility that one congressional district in each of those states may be competitive in November. Finally, the map can be populated randomly or more East-to-West, based on actual poll closing times.

 

Additional new features will be coming soon.

The way the site is structured, we can only have one simulation pairing, and so we've chosen to launch (rather than wait) with the most likely fall match-up. For the Bernie Sanders fans out there, we continue to maintain the Sanders vs. Trump electoral map.

comments powered by Disqus

Headlines

State of Play: How 2022's Closest U.S. House Races are Looking in 2024

The 2022 election in eleven districts was decided by a margin of less than 1%

2024 General Election: Poll Closing Times

Results and Race Projections begin to be available after these times

Legal U.S. Prediction Markets for President are Live

An appeals court ruling earlier this week set the stage for political betting by U.S. residents

Live Results: Alabama State House Special Election

The final special election before the November general election will fill a vacant safely Democratic seat in the Birmingham area.

Overview and Live Results: New Jersey Congressional Special Election

The winner will complete the term of the late Democratic Rep. Donald Payne Jr.