New Hampshire and Rhode Island Primaries: Overview and Live Results
By 270toWin Staff
September 8, 2020
We're down to the final three primary states. New Hampshire and Rhode Island hold contests Tuesday, with Delaware wrapping things up in one week.
Polls close at 8:00 Eastern Time in both states, although many polling places close an hour earlier in New Hampshire. As always, your polling place may have different hours; don't rely on this schedule to determine when to vote.
New Hampshire
Senate: Incumbent Democrat Jeanne Shaheen is seeking a third term. Shaheen is not expected to have any issues with her primary. Attorney Corky Messner and Army special forces veteran Don Bolduc are the leading candidates seeking the Republican nomination. President Trump has endorsed Messner. There have been two polls in recent weeks. Messner led by 21 in one and by 2 in the other - so that doesn't give us much to go on. Messner has a considerable lead in fundraising, although he has self-funded a significant portion of the campaign.
Looking ahead to November, most forecasters rate this Likely or Safe Democratic. Polling gives Shaheen a double-digit lead against either candidate.
Governor: New Hampshire is one of only two states (Vermont the other) where governors have a two-year term. Incumbent Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is seeking a third term. He has a nominal primary challenge. State Sen. Dan Feltes and Excecutive Councilor Andru Volinsky are seeking the Democratic nomination. Very limited polling has been within the margin of error.
Regardless of who advances, Sununu will be favored in November.
House: Both seats are held by Democrats and that is not expected to change in 2020.
Historically, the first district has been more competitive. In the recent Road to 270: New Hampshire article, Drew Savicki recounted the four consecutive elections between Democrat Carol Shea-Porter and Republican Frank Guinta in the 2010-2016 period. They each won twice, alternating victories. Shea-Porter, then the incumbent, announced her retirement in 2017. Democrat Chris Pappas won by about 8% in 2018. He is not facing a primary challenge. Matt Mowers and Matt Mayberry appear to be the frontrunners for the GOP nomination but either will have an uphill battle against the incumbent.
In District 2, Anne Kuster faces a nominal primary challenge. She is not expected to have much trouble with that or winning a 5th term in November.
Rhode Island
House: Both seats are held by long-time Democratic incumbents. David Cicilline in District 1 won a 5th term by nearly 34% in 2018, he has no primary challenge and is expected to easily win reelection.
District 2 is also seen as safely Democratic in the general election. However, to get there, ten-term incumbent Jim Langevin must fend off a primary challenge from the left. Attorney Dylan Conley entered the race in June. While the last two cycles have seen insurgent progressives knock off several long-time incumbents, Conley faces an uphill climb to do the same.
