Redistricting Update: Hawaii and New York
By 270toWin Staff
January 31, 2022, 9:09 AM ET
Hawaii
The Aloha State has a new congressional map, after the state's Reapportionment Commission approved it on Friday. As expected, the changes made were extremely minor, shifting a few thousand people from District 1 to 2. The new map has been added to the 2022 House Interactive Map.
14 states, with 146 districts, are still to be drawn. This includes 22 districts in Ohio and Alabama, where previously enacted maps have been thrown out by the courts. Florida (28 districts) and New York (26) are the largest states remaining. As we'll discuss next, New York may have a new map by the end of the week.
New York
Democrats in the state legislature released a congressional plan Sunday that will improve the party's midterm prospects in the national battle for control of the U.S. House. Democrats hold a 19-8 edge in the current New York delegation; that may grow to as much as 22-4 if the plan is implemented. The state is losing a seat in redistricting.
Click or tap the image below for a larger version and analysis at The Washington Post. There you can hover over individual districts to see the shift in 2020 presidential results under the new boundaries.
According to the New York Times, legislators may vote on the new maps as soon as Wednesday. Democrats control both branches of the Legislature by wide margins: 43-20 in the Senate, and 104-43 in the Assembly. This gives Republicans little opportunity, outside of the courts, to affect the outcome. The Legislature took over the process after a bipartisan redistricting commission, approved by voters in 2014, failed to reach a consensus.
In the new plan, Democrats are in a good position to pick up District 1 in Long Island, which shifts from Trump +4 to Biden +11. The plan does this by strengthening District 2 for the GOP. As of next January, that may be the only GOP-held district in the state not bordering a Great Lake or Canada. The current NY-1 incumbent, Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) is seeking the Republican nomination to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul (D).
District 11, which includes all of Staten Island and a small part of Brooklyn will move from Trump +11 to Biden +9, endangering Republican incumbent Nicole Malliotakis. Democrats were able to swing the lean of this district in the new plan by adding Brooklyn neighborhoods Park Slope, Gowanus, and Sunset Park.
Farther upstate, the new plan effectively eliminates any competitive districts. Some of disappearing District 27 will be folded into District 24, held by retiring Republican Rep. John Katko. The existing District 24 went for Biden +9, giving it the largest margin of any crossover district1 1A crossover district is one with a split ticket - where the elected representative is of a different party than the vote for president. in 2020. The new District 24 will be safely Republican at Trump +20, as Syracuse shifts to District 22. However, this will be a net loss of one seat for the GOP.
Adding Syracuse, Democrats will be favored to pick up District 22, held by Republican Claudia Tenney. It will shift from Trump +12 to Biden +18. Tenney is expected to run in the new District 23, which moves from Trump +12 to Trump +21. Incumbent Republican Tom Reed is retiring there.
