Introducing the 2024 Presidential Election Simulator
By 270toWin Staff
July 13, 2024, 2:10 PM ET
The 2024 Presidential Election Simulator and related statistics are now available on 270toWin. You can conduct individual simulated elections on your own or review the results of 25,000 simulations conducted each morning.
The simulator is largely based on a data-driven presidential model created by JHK forecasts.
The model encompasses both fundamentals and polling. It also accounts for uncertainty, which will decrease as the election draws closer. Since we are still over 100 days from the election, that uncertainty means that any single simulation might produce a result that seems unrealistic.
Here you can conduct a simulated election in just a few seconds. Each simulation conducted during a session (i.e., before the page is reloaded) will be aggregated in the table below the map.
Each morning, we run 25,000 simulations and aggregate the results. On this page, you can see the probability of a Trump or Biden win and the median electoral votes calculated each day beginning on June 15.
There is also a chart with the frequency of each result across all simulations.
Finally, you can review the aggregate results by state for the most recent day. Click or tap any state to see a chart of its calculated Biden and Trump probabilities since June 15. These pages also display smaller charts linked to what the model thinks are the most competitive states. Here's Michigan, for example.
