538 Forecast Model Relaunches for Harris vs. Trump General Election

By 270toWin Staff

August 23, 2024, 5:42 PM ET

The 538 probabilistic forecast model relaunched Friday, updated to reflect a Harris vs. Trump general election. 

"538 is excited to unveil our forecast for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Our forecast starts out with a slight lead for Harris, reflecting her current edge in polls but uncertainty about how the rest of the election could impact the state of the race. With 75 days to go, we think anything from a clear Trump victory to a clear Harris win is possible (while a close win either way is most likely)."

In the image below, the Toss-up tan color is used where neither candidate currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. The colored gradients are used to show higher probabilities for Harris or Trump, deepening as the likelihood of winning increases: Light (60%+), Medium (75%+), Dark (95%+).

The map updates at 5:00 PM Eastern Time daily. Click the image for an interactive version.

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